Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model
In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174399 |
| _version_ | 1855525248665911296 |
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| author | Yessenbayev, K. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Yessembekova, G. Kadyrov, A. Sultanov, A. Bainiyazov, A. Bakishev, T. Nkamwesiga, Joseph Korennoy, F. Abdrakhmanov, S. |
| author_browse | Abdrakhmanov, S. Bainiyazov, A. Bakishev, T. Kadyrov, A. Korennoy, F. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Nkamwesiga, Joseph Sultanov, A. Yessembekova, G. Yessenbayev, K. |
| author_facet | Yessenbayev, K. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Yessembekova, G. Kadyrov, A. Sultanov, A. Bainiyazov, A. Bakishev, T. Nkamwesiga, Joseph Korennoy, F. Abdrakhmanov, S. |
| author_sort | Yessenbayev, K. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. The most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. This article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. This implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. The size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. The chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace174399 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1743992025-10-26T12:52:17Z Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model Yessenbayev, K. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Yessembekova, G. Kadyrov, A. Sultanov, A. Bainiyazov, A. Bakishev, T. Nkamwesiga, Joseph Korennoy, F. Abdrakhmanov, S. animal diseases peste des petits ruminants In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. The most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. This article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. This implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. The size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. The chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage. 2023-03-28 2025-04-30T16:26:30Z 2025-04-30T16:26:30Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174399 en Open Access Wiley Yessenbayev, K., Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y., Yessembekova, G., Kadyrov, A., Sultanov, A., Bainiyazov, A., Bakishev, T., Nkamwesiga, J., Korennoy, F. and Abdrakhmanov, S. 2023. Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2023(1): 7052175. |
| spellingShingle | animal diseases peste des petits ruminants Yessenbayev, K. Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y. Yessembekova, G. Kadyrov, A. Sultanov, A. Bainiyazov, A. Bakishev, T. Nkamwesiga, Joseph Korennoy, F. Abdrakhmanov, S. Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title | Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title_full | Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title_short | Simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in Kazakhstan using the North American animal disease spread model |
| title_sort | simulating the spread of peste des petits ruminants in kazakhstan using the north american animal disease spread model |
| topic | animal diseases peste des petits ruminants |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174399 |
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