Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks
Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity pric...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174150 |
| _version_ | 1855515675929346048 |
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| author | Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Jones, Eleanor Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Mukashov, Askar |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace174150 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1741502025-11-06T04:21:39Z Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James markets domestic production shock risk analysis Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors. 2025-04-11 2025-04-11T17:30:38Z 2025-04-11T17:30:38Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174150 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Brief 11. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174150 |
| spellingShingle | markets domestic production shock risk analysis Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title | Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title_full | Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title_fullStr | Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title_short | Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| title_sort | uganda systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks |
| topic | markets domestic production shock risk analysis |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174150 |
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