Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges
This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking eco...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731 |
| _version_ | 1855531804416540672 |
|---|---|
| author | Diao, Xinshen Khakimov, Parviz Ashurov, Timur Aliev, Jovidon Fang, Peixun Randriamamonjy, Josee Pauw, Karl Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Aliev, Jovidon Ashurov, Timur Diao, Xinshen Fang, Peixun Khakimov, Parviz Pauw, Karl Randriamamonjy, Josee Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Diao, Xinshen Khakimov, Parviz Ashurov, Timur Aliev, Jovidon Fang, Peixun Randriamamonjy, Josee Pauw, Karl Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Diao, Xinshen |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace173731 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1737312025-12-02T21:02:40Z Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges Diao, Xinshen Khakimov, Parviz Ashurov, Timur Aliev, Jovidon Fang, Peixun Randriamamonjy, Josee Pauw, Karl Thurlow, James agrifood systems diet economic growth poverty This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes. 2025-03-18 2025-03-19T15:45:22Z 2025-03-19T15:45:22Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168997 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131443 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2329. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731 |
| spellingShingle | agrifood systems diet economic growth poverty Diao, Xinshen Khakimov, Parviz Ashurov, Timur Aliev, Jovidon Fang, Peixun Randriamamonjy, Josee Pauw, Karl Thurlow, James Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title | Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title_full | Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title_fullStr | Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title_short | Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| title_sort | tajikistan s agrifood system the past performance and future opportunities and challenges |
| topic | agrifood systems diet economic growth poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT diaoxinshen tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT khakimovparviz tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT ashurovtimur tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT alievjovidon tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT fangpeixun tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT randriamamonjyjosee tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT pauwkarl tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges AT thurlowjames tajikistansagrifoodsystemthepastperformanceandfutureopportunitiesandchallenges |