Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka
Study region Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Study focus The dynamics of human-flood interactions are particularly pronounced in flood-prone regions. Effective flood management requires a synergistic approach that combines “hard” with “soft” measures in these areas. However, a gap remains in th...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173700 |
| _version_ | 1855528084335230976 |
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| author | Perera, C. Tamakawa, K. Rasmy, M. Ushiyama, T. Nakamura, S. |
| author_browse | Nakamura, S. Perera, C. Rasmy, M. Tamakawa, K. Ushiyama, T. |
| author_facet | Perera, C. Tamakawa, K. Rasmy, M. Ushiyama, T. Nakamura, S. |
| author_sort | Perera, C. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Study region
Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka.
Study focus
The dynamics of human-flood interactions are particularly pronounced in flood-prone regions. Effective flood management requires a synergistic approach that combines “hard” with “soft” measures in these areas. However, a gap remains in the empirical evaluation of the combined efficiency of these measures in the context of a changing climate and human–flood interaction dynamics. This study introduced an enhanced socio-hydrological model that evaluates hard and soft measures.
New hydrological insights for the region
We projected future annual maximum river levels using downscaled GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), incorporating simulations from the HEC-HMS model. Subsequently, a socio-hydrological model (SHM) was employed to outline potential socio-hydrological trajectories from 2025 to 2100. Floodplain dynamics were assessed under four management options: business-as-usual, soft-path, hard-path, and combined hard- and soft-path scenarios. These findings underscore the critical role of soft measures in mitigating flood damage across protected and unprotected floodplains. The soft-path approach demonstrated a 10–14 % reduction in damage compared with the business-as-usual scenario across all GCM-RCP scenarios. The integrated hard- and soft-path strategies showed a damage reduction of 12–38 % compared with the hard-path alone. This study also highlighted the significant role of Flood Risk Information (FRI) in reducing flood damage, particularly in protected floodplains. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace173700 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1737002025-10-26T13:01:40Z Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka Perera, C. Tamakawa, K. Rasmy, M. Ushiyama, T. Nakamura, S. Study region Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Study focus The dynamics of human-flood interactions are particularly pronounced in flood-prone regions. Effective flood management requires a synergistic approach that combines “hard” with “soft” measures in these areas. However, a gap remains in the empirical evaluation of the combined efficiency of these measures in the context of a changing climate and human–flood interaction dynamics. This study introduced an enhanced socio-hydrological model that evaluates hard and soft measures. New hydrological insights for the region We projected future annual maximum river levels using downscaled GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), incorporating simulations from the HEC-HMS model. Subsequently, a socio-hydrological model (SHM) was employed to outline potential socio-hydrological trajectories from 2025 to 2100. Floodplain dynamics were assessed under four management options: business-as-usual, soft-path, hard-path, and combined hard- and soft-path scenarios. These findings underscore the critical role of soft measures in mitigating flood damage across protected and unprotected floodplains. The soft-path approach demonstrated a 10–14 % reduction in damage compared with the business-as-usual scenario across all GCM-RCP scenarios. The integrated hard- and soft-path strategies showed a damage reduction of 12–38 % compared with the hard-path alone. This study also highlighted the significant role of Flood Risk Information (FRI) in reducing flood damage, particularly in protected floodplains. 2025-04 2025-03-19T05:39:46Z 2025-03-19T05:39:46Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173700 en Open Access Elsevier Perera, C.; Tamakawa, K.; Rasmy, M.; Ushiyama, T.; Nakamura, S. 2025. Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 58:102230. [doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102230] |
| spellingShingle | Perera, C. Tamakawa, K. Rasmy, M. Ushiyama, T. Nakamura, S. Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title | Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title_full | Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title_fullStr | Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title_full_unstemmed | Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title_short | Socio-hydrological prediction of soft-path vs. hard-path in flood risk management under climate change: a case study from the Lower Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka |
| title_sort | socio hydrological prediction of soft path vs hard path in flood risk management under climate change a case study from the lower kelani river basin sri lanka |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173700 |
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