| Sumario: | The increased intensity and frequency of future climate extremes might invalidate current water policies, particularly in the case of basins with competing water uses. To analyze these challenges, the nexus approach was proposed as an alternative to integrated resources management by simultaneously taking into account synergies and trade-offs on water, energy, and food security. However, the application of nexus approaches is incipient, and scarcity events highlighted challenges in implementing its principles, which are crucial for meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this study proposes a set of water, energy, and food indicators that reflect the SDGs, focusing on water use in the Paraíba do Sul River Basin, Brazil for the period 2016–2050. Results showed a limited influence of land use policies on future resource availability, with differences of less than 5% among scenarios. Projections revealed an increased frequency of extreme discharge compared with the baseline period. Moreover, the analysis of the scenarios revealed a higher probability of failing to meet one of the water transfer targets of the basin. The efficiency of wastewater treatment will significantly impact freshwater quality, indicating low water quality 90% of the time considering the current level of wastewater treatment.
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