Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of g...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Fan, Shenggen, Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Wiley 1997
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171969
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author Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
author_browse Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
Fan, Shenggen
author_facet Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
author_sort Fan, Shenggen
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.
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spelling CGSpace1719692025-02-19T14:00:46Z Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. food supply forecasting food consumption This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports. 1997-06 2025-01-29T12:59:04Z 2025-01-29T12:59:04Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171969 en Limited Access Wiley Fan, Shenggen; Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. 1997. Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 41(2): 169-190. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.00009
spellingShingle food supply
forecasting
food consumption
Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.
Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_full Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_fullStr Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_full_unstemmed Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_short Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_sort why projections on china s future food supply and demand differ
topic food supply
forecasting
food consumption
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171969
work_keys_str_mv AT fanshenggen whyprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer
AT agcaoilisombillamerceditac whyprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer