Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020
A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agri...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Capítulo de libro |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
The American University in Cairo Press
1998
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171603 |
| _version_ | 1855539542108405760 |
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| author | Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. |
| author_browse | Lofgren, Hans Nygaard, David F. Robinson, Sherman |
| author_facet | Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. |
| author_sort | Lofgren, Hans |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A "Turtle" scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth. |
| format | Book Chapter |
| id | CGSpace171603 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 1998 |
| publishDateRange | 1998 |
| publishDateSort | 1998 |
| publisher | The American University in Cairo Press |
| publisherStr | The American University in Cairo Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1716032025-02-19T14:02:22Z Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. equilibrium agriculture economic aspects water supply computable general equilibrium models trade trade liberalization international trade A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A "Turtle" scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth. 1998 2025-01-29T12:58:26Z 2025-01-29T12:58:26Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171603 en Limited Access The American University in Cairo Press International Development Research Centre Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Nygaard, David F. 1998. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020. In Raed Safadi, ed. Opening doors to the world: a new trade agenda for the Middle East. pp. 167-197 (Chapter 5). |
| spellingShingle | equilibrium agriculture economic aspects water supply computable general equilibrium models trade trade liberalization international trade Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_full | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_short | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_sort | tiger or turtle exploring alternative futures for egypt to 2020 |
| topic | equilibrium agriculture economic aspects water supply computable general equilibrium models trade trade liberalization international trade |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/171603 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lofgrenhans tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 AT robinsonsherman tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 AT nygaarddavidf tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 |