Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model
The livestock sector is undergoing rapid changes, and governments are designing sector development plans to account for this transition. However, the fundamental assumptions behind the medium- to long-term growth strategies of the sector should be looked at from the perspective of the dynamics in th...
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| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169867 |
| _version_ | 1855532750352678912 |
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| author | Aragie, Emerta A. Thurlow, James |
| author2 | Alders, Robyn |
| author_browse | Alders, Robyn Aragie, Emerta A. Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Alders, Robyn Aragie, Emerta A. Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Aragie, Emerta A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The livestock sector is undergoing rapid changes, and governments are designing sector development plans to account for this transition. However, the fundamental assumptions behind the medium- to long-term growth strategies of the sector should be looked at from the perspective of the dynamics in the domestic and global economy, and uncertainties around the driving forces of the transition.This study used the case of Ethiopia to provide a scenario-based analysis of alternative national development trajectories, focusing on the prospects of growth performance, urbanisation, and their potential implications on the cattle system within the country.We employed a newly developed linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model where the livestock, economy-wide, and microsimulation subsystems are linked either way through flows of information.Our findings suggested that demand for animal-source food (ASF) is highly dependent on economic-demographic changes and that income growth is the primary driver of overall livestock-system expansion. Additionally, urbanisation shifts the outputs of the livestock systems towards processed ASF products.The analysis showed that livestock development plans should reflect the economic reality and potential risks facing the economic system. Herd offtake and livestock sector output vary considerably with assumptions about future growth and urbanisation trajectories.In addition to relevant findings about the implications of the interplays between the economic and demographic variables, the study generated insights into the role of integrating economy-wide and livestock-system models to provide a risk-based approach to the prospects of the livestock sector. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace169867 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
| publisherStr | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1698672025-12-08T10:29:22Z Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model Aragie, Emerta A. Thurlow, James Alders, Robyn modelling livestock development plans urbanization The livestock sector is undergoing rapid changes, and governments are designing sector development plans to account for this transition. However, the fundamental assumptions behind the medium- to long-term growth strategies of the sector should be looked at from the perspective of the dynamics in the domestic and global economy, and uncertainties around the driving forces of the transition.This study used the case of Ethiopia to provide a scenario-based analysis of alternative national development trajectories, focusing on the prospects of growth performance, urbanisation, and their potential implications on the cattle system within the country.We employed a newly developed linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model where the livestock, economy-wide, and microsimulation subsystems are linked either way through flows of information.Our findings suggested that demand for animal-source food (ASF) is highly dependent on economic-demographic changes and that income growth is the primary driver of overall livestock-system expansion. Additionally, urbanisation shifts the outputs of the livestock systems towards processed ASF products.The analysis showed that livestock development plans should reflect the economic reality and potential risks facing the economic system. Herd offtake and livestock sector output vary considerably with assumptions about future growth and urbanisation trajectories.In addition to relevant findings about the implications of the interplays between the economic and demographic variables, the study generated insights into the role of integrating economy-wide and livestock-system models to provide a risk-based approach to the prospects of the livestock sector. 2024-10-14 2025-01-24T19:29:25Z 2025-01-24T19:29:25Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169867 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134330 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152379 Limited Access Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Aragie, Emerta A.; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model. Animal Production Science 64(15): AN23138. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN23138 |
| spellingShingle | modelling livestock development plans urbanization Aragie, Emerta A. Thurlow, James Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title | Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title_full | Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title_short | Analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in Ethiopia: Linked economic and animal systems (LEAS) model |
| title_sort | analysis of alternative national development pathways for the cattle system in ethiopia linked economic and animal systems leas model |
| topic | modelling livestock development plans urbanization |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169867 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aragieemertaa analysisofalternativenationaldevelopmentpathwaysforthecattlesysteminethiopialinkedeconomicandanimalsystemsleasmodel AT thurlowjames analysisofalternativenationaldevelopmentpathwaysforthecattlesysteminethiopialinkedeconomicandanimalsystemsleasmodel |