Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using his...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665 |
| _version_ | 1855528688878092288 |
|---|---|
| author | Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Jones, Eleanor Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Mukashov, Askar |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic shocks ac-counting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private consumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bang-ladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace169665 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1696652025-11-06T04:35:43Z Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James shock economic shock computable general equilibrium models agriculture market prices machine learning climate change This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic shocks ac-counting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private consumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bang-ladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors. 2024-12-30 2025-01-22T16:52:28Z 2025-01-22T16:52:28Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 6. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665 |
| spellingShingle | shock economic shock computable general equilibrium models agriculture market prices machine learning climate change Mukashov, Askar Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title | Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full | Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_fullStr | Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_short | Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_sort | bangladesh systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| topic | shock economic shock computable general equilibrium models agriculture market prices machine learning climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mukashovaskar bangladeshsystematicanalysisofdomesticproductionandworldmarketshocks AT joneseleanor bangladeshsystematicanalysisofdomesticproductionandworldmarketshocks AT thurlowjames bangladeshsystematicanalysisofdomesticproductionandworldmarketshocks |