From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia
While livelihoods of Somalian livestock smallholders rely heavily on seasonal climate conditions, little is known of long-term implications of the changing climate for this nation. Here, we quantify implications of the changing climate on the productivity and profitability of livestock smallholders...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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IOP Publishing
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168971 |
| _version_ | 1855521809285251072 |
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| author | Hussein, Jaabir Bilotto, Franco Sircely, Jason Mbui, Damaris Omondi, Philip Sofia, S.C. Shah, Fahad Harrison, T.M. |
| author_browse | Bilotto, Franco Harrison, T.M. Hussein, Jaabir Mbui, Damaris Omondi, Philip Shah, Fahad Sircely, Jason Sofia, S.C. |
| author_facet | Hussein, Jaabir Bilotto, Franco Sircely, Jason Mbui, Damaris Omondi, Philip Sofia, S.C. Shah, Fahad Harrison, T.M. |
| author_sort | Hussein, Jaabir |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | While livelihoods of Somalian livestock smallholders rely heavily on seasonal climate conditions, little is known of long-term implications of the changing climate for this nation. Here, we quantify implications of the changing climate on the productivity and profitability of livestock smallholders across a rainfall gradient in northwestern Somalia. Using the Sustainable Grazing Systems (SGS) model, we explore 80 future climate realisations, with global climate model projections including low- and high-impact socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), two climate horizons (2040 and 2080) and four case study farm regions. In general, future seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature relative to the baseline period (1981–2020) increased for most regions. Mean annual temperatures increased by 9%–14%, while cumulative annual precipitation increased by 37%–57% from mid to late century, respectively. Grassland production increased with later climate horizons, as higher average annual rainfall together with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide drove up growth rates in spring and autumn. Under the low emissions scenario (SSP245), changes in farm profit were modest or positive, ranging from negative 4% in Berbera–20% plus in Sheikh. Under the higher emissions scenario (SSP585), farm profits were higher, ranging from 23% to 42% above baseline profits, largely due to greater pasture production and lower requirements for supplementary feed. We conclude that future climates will benefit the productivity and profitability of smallholder farmers in Somalia, although more agile farm management will be required to cope with increased seasonal climate variability. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace168971 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| publisherStr | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1689712025-11-13T10:38:36Z From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia Hussein, Jaabir Bilotto, Franco Sircely, Jason Mbui, Damaris Omondi, Philip Sofia, S.C. Shah, Fahad Harrison, T.M. climate change adaptation livestock livestock production sustainability While livelihoods of Somalian livestock smallholders rely heavily on seasonal climate conditions, little is known of long-term implications of the changing climate for this nation. Here, we quantify implications of the changing climate on the productivity and profitability of livestock smallholders across a rainfall gradient in northwestern Somalia. Using the Sustainable Grazing Systems (SGS) model, we explore 80 future climate realisations, with global climate model projections including low- and high-impact socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), two climate horizons (2040 and 2080) and four case study farm regions. In general, future seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature relative to the baseline period (1981–2020) increased for most regions. Mean annual temperatures increased by 9%–14%, while cumulative annual precipitation increased by 37%–57% from mid to late century, respectively. Grassland production increased with later climate horizons, as higher average annual rainfall together with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide drove up growth rates in spring and autumn. Under the low emissions scenario (SSP245), changes in farm profit were modest or positive, ranging from negative 4% in Berbera–20% plus in Sheikh. Under the higher emissions scenario (SSP585), farm profits were higher, ranging from 23% to 42% above baseline profits, largely due to greater pasture production and lower requirements for supplementary feed. We conclude that future climates will benefit the productivity and profitability of smallholder farmers in Somalia, although more agile farm management will be required to cope with increased seasonal climate variability. 2024-12-01 2025-01-14T14:56:01Z 2025-01-14T14:56:01Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168971 en Open Access application/pdf IOP Publishing Hussein, Jaabir, Bilotto, Franco, Sircely, Jason.,Mbui, Damaris, Omondi, Philip, Sofia, S.C., Shah, Fahad, Harrison, T.M. From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia.Paper. ILRI. Kenya |
| spellingShingle | climate change adaptation livestock livestock production sustainability Hussein, Jaabir Bilotto, Franco Sircely, Jason Mbui, Damaris Omondi, Philip Sofia, S.C. Shah, Fahad Harrison, T.M. From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title | From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title_full | From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title_fullStr | From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title_full_unstemmed | From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title_short | From crisis to opportunity: climate change benefits livestock production in Somalia |
| title_sort | from crisis to opportunity climate change benefits livestock production in somalia |
| topic | climate change adaptation livestock livestock production sustainability |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168971 |
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