Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of thei...
| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Brief |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723 |
| _version_ | 1855538266554499072 |
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| author | Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James Dorosh, Paul A. Jones, Eleanor |
| author_browse | Dorosh, Paul A. Jones, Eleanor Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James Dorosh, Paul A. Jones, Eleanor |
| author_sort | Mukashov, Askar |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace168723 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1687232025-11-06T04:43:37Z Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James Dorosh, Paul A. Jones, Eleanor risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy. 2024-12-30 2025-01-08T22:43:59Z 2025-01-08T22:43:59Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723 |
| spellingShingle | risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James Dorosh, Paul A. Jones, Eleanor Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title | Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full | Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_fullStr | Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_short | Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_sort | nepal systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| topic | risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723 |
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