External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation
The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power...
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168708 |
| _version_ | 1855513766784925696 |
|---|---|
| author | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza |
| author_browse | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| author_facet | Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza |
| author_sort | Ceballos, Francisco |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace168708 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1687082025-11-06T05:04:48Z External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza migration rural areas urban areas The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit. 2024-12-05 2025-01-08T19:29:55Z 2025-01-08T19:29:55Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168708 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/137423 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/137532 https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133849 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza. 2024. External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation. IFPRI Working Paper December 2024. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168708 |
| spellingShingle | migration rural areas urban areas Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title | External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title_full | External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title_fullStr | External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title_full_unstemmed | External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title_short | External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation |
| title_sort | external and internal migration propensity index mpi for honduras out of sample validation |
| topic | migration rural areas urban areas |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168708 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ceballosfrancisco externalandinternalmigrationpropensityindexmpiforhondurasoutofsamplevalidation AT hernandezmanuela externalandinternalmigrationpropensityindexmpiforhondurasoutofsamplevalidation AT hernandezalvaroespinoza externalandinternalmigrationpropensityindexmpiforhondurasoutofsamplevalidation |