Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynami...

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Autores principales: Ayalew, Hailemariam, Breisinger, Clemens, Karugia, Joseph T., Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi, Kimathi, Sally, Olwande, John
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2024
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639
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author Ayalew, Hailemariam
Breisinger, Clemens
Karugia, Joseph T.
Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi
Kimathi, Sally
Olwande, John
author_browse Ayalew, Hailemariam
Breisinger, Clemens
Karugia, Joseph T.
Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi
Kimathi, Sally
Olwande, John
author_facet Ayalew, Hailemariam
Breisinger, Clemens
Karugia, Joseph T.
Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi
Kimathi, Sally
Olwande, John
author_sort Ayalew, Hailemariam
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.
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spelling CGSpace1686392025-11-06T06:48:27Z Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions Ayalew, Hailemariam Breisinger, Clemens Karugia, Joseph T. Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi Kimathi, Sally Olwande, John subsidies fertilizers resilience supply chain disruptions supply chains global value chains maize smallholders Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty. 2024-12-31 2025-01-07T16:12:18Z 2025-01-07T16:12:18Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; and Olwande, John. 2024. Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2306. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639
spellingShingle subsidies
fertilizers
resilience
supply chain disruptions
supply chains
global value chains
maize
smallholders
Ayalew, Hailemariam
Breisinger, Clemens
Karugia, Joseph T.
Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi
Kimathi, Sally
Olwande, John
Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title_full Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title_fullStr Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title_full_unstemmed Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title_short Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
title_sort subsidizing resilience evaluating kenya s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions
topic subsidies
fertilizers
resilience
supply chain disruptions
supply chains
global value chains
maize
smallholders
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639
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