Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have a...

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Main Authors: Takeshima, Hiroyuki, Minten, Bart, van Asselt, Joanna, Lambrecht, Isabel B., Masias, Ian, Goeb, Joseph, Aung, Zin Wai, Htar, May Thet
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Elsevier 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168471
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author Takeshima, Hiroyuki
Minten, Bart
van Asselt, Joanna
Lambrecht, Isabel B.
Masias, Ian
Goeb, Joseph
Aung, Zin Wai
Htar, May Thet
author_browse Aung, Zin Wai
Goeb, Joseph
Htar, May Thet
Lambrecht, Isabel B.
Masias, Ian
Minten, Bart
Takeshima, Hiroyuki
van Asselt, Joanna
author_facet Takeshima, Hiroyuki
Minten, Bart
van Asselt, Joanna
Lambrecht, Isabel B.
Masias, Ian
Goeb, Joseph
Aung, Zin Wai
Htar, May Thet
author_sort Takeshima, Hiroyuki
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.
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publishDate 2025
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spelling CGSpace1684712025-10-26T12:56:37Z Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar Takeshima, Hiroyuki Minten, Bart van Asselt, Joanna Lambrecht, Isabel B. Masias, Ian Goeb, Joseph Aung, Zin Wai Htar, May Thet fertilizers conflicts prices imports farmers markets data rice yields agricultural productivity The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings. 2025-05 2025-01-02T15:15:54Z 2025-01-02T15:15:54Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168471 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152392 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12855 https://iaae.confex.com/iaae/icae32/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/20757 Open Access Elsevier Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel Brigitte; Masias, Ian; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; and Htar, May Thet. 2025. Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar. Food Policy 133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102786
spellingShingle fertilizers
conflicts
prices
imports
farmers
markets
data
rice
yields
agricultural productivity
Takeshima, Hiroyuki
Minten, Bart
van Asselt, Joanna
Lambrecht, Isabel B.
Masias, Ian
Goeb, Joseph
Aung, Zin Wai
Htar, May Thet
Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title_full Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title_fullStr Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title_full_unstemmed Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title_short Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar
title_sort fertilizer and conflicts evidence from myanmar
topic fertilizers
conflicts
prices
imports
farmers
markets
data
rice
yields
agricultural productivity
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168471
work_keys_str_mv AT takeshimahiroyuki fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT mintenbart fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT vanasseltjoanna fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT lambrechtisabelb fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT masiasian fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT goebjoseph fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT aungzinwai fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar
AT htarmaythet fertilizerandconflictsevidencefrommyanmar