Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh

Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop r...

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Autores principales: Parker Wheatley, W., Khanam, Taznoore, Pede, Valerien O., Yamano, Takashi
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Elsevier 2024
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168444
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author Parker Wheatley, W.
Khanam, Taznoore
Pede, Valerien O.
Yamano, Takashi
author_browse Khanam, Taznoore
Parker Wheatley, W.
Pede, Valerien O.
Yamano, Takashi
author_facet Parker Wheatley, W.
Khanam, Taznoore
Pede, Valerien O.
Yamano, Takashi
author_sort Parker Wheatley, W.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather.
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spelling CGSpace1684442025-10-26T12:51:12Z Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh Parker Wheatley, W. Khanam, Taznoore Pede, Valerien O. Yamano, Takashi field experimentation risk assessment climate change weather climate change adaptation crops Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather. 2024 2024-12-31T19:11:33Z 2024-12-31T19:11:33Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168444 en Open Access application/pdf Elsevier Wheatley, W. Parker, Taznoore Khanam, Valerien O. Pede, and Takashi Yamano. "Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh." Climate Risk Management 45 (2024): 100645. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100645
spellingShingle field experimentation
risk assessment
climate change
weather
climate change adaptation
crops
Parker Wheatley, W.
Khanam, Taznoore
Pede, Valerien O.
Yamano, Takashi
Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title_full Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title_fullStr Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title_short Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh
title_sort weather risks crop losses and risk proneness an examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in bangladesh
topic field experimentation
risk assessment
climate change
weather
climate change adaptation
crops
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168444
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