| Sumario: | In September 2024, we surveyed 256 rice millers from 12 states and regions across Myanmar to assess the impacts of the monsoon floods and the political crisis and related disruptions.
This report presents the key results and analysis from those interviews.
Key findings
Flooding has significantly affected monsoon paddy production, with 74 percent of millers reporting flood-related impacts, particularly in the main rice-growing regions. Consequently, 63 percent of millers expect local production to decline compared to last year, with 73 percent of millers in flood-affected areas anticipating reduced output.
Labor shortages have emerged as a critical challenge for milling businesses, with 53 percent of millers identifying it as a significant issue and 7 percent considering it the most severe disruption.
Mills continue to face ongoing difficulties accessing electricity and fuel, alongside rising transportation costs. Moreover, reports about disruptions in banking and finance have doubled compared to last year, indicating increasingly widespread and persistent challenges.
Mill-level paddy and rice prices continued to rise in September 2024. Rice prices increased by 17–19 percent compared to one year earlier, while paddy prices rose by a more modest 8 percent on average. This discrepancy suggests that higher milling margins account for a significant share of the price increases.
Looking forward
There will be lower paddy production from the 2024 monsoon season due to floods and pests, which is expected to further drive-up rice prices for consumers. Rice prices have already risen rapidly over the past three years, raising serious concerns about affordability and food security.
Labor availability is a rising concern and rising costs of labor and fuel together with volatile byproduct markets and other business disruptions have likely contributed to rising milling margins, with a smaller share of rice price increases passed through to producers. This trend underscores the impacts of business disruptions and the need for stability.
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