Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks
This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using h...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 |
| _version_ | 1855531505133027328 |
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| author | Mukashov, Askar Warner, James Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Jones, Eleanor Mukashov, Askar Thurlow, James Warner, James |
| author_facet | Mukashov, Askar Warner, James Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Mukashov, Askar |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. |
| format | Brief |
| id | CGSpace168183 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1681832025-11-06T04:38:00Z Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks Mukashov, Askar Warner, James Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors. 2024-12-20 2024-12-20T19:20:32Z 2024-12-20T19:20:32Z Brief https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/158180 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Mukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 |
| spellingShingle | risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield Mukashov, Askar Warner, James Jones, Eleanor Thurlow, James Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title | Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full | Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_fullStr | Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_short | Rwanda: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| title_sort | rwanda systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks |
| topic | risk assessment climate shock economic shock market prices computable general equilibrium models machine learning agriculture crop yield |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168183 |
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