Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection
In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effecti...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168104 |
| _version_ | 1855541683869974528 |
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| author | Siddig, Khalid Thurlow, James Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Randriamamonjy, Josee Raouf, Mariam |
| author_browse | Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Randriamamonjy, Josee Raouf, Mariam Siddig, Khalid Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Siddig, Khalid Thurlow, James Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Randriamamonjy, Josee Raouf, Mariam |
| author_sort | Siddig, Khalid |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace168104 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1681042025-11-06T07:42:03Z Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection Siddig, Khalid Thurlow, James Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Randriamamonjy, Josee Raouf, Mariam conflicts economic impact poverty nutrition agricultural sector social protection infrastructure In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan. 2024-12-19 2024-12-19T20:58:19Z 2024-12-19T20:58:19Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168104 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140293 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; and Raouf, Mariam. 2024. Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection. Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168104 |
| spellingShingle | conflicts economic impact poverty nutrition agricultural sector social protection infrastructure Siddig, Khalid Thurlow, James Ahmed, Mosab O. M. Randriamamonjy, Josee Raouf, Mariam Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title | Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title_full | Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title_fullStr | Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title_short | Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection |
| title_sort | impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in sudan agricultural bounce back infrastructural investment and social protection |
| topic | conflicts economic impact poverty nutrition agricultural sector social protection infrastructure |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168104 |
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