Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of g...

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Autores principales: Fan, Shenggen, Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Wiley 1997
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/166911
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author Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
author_browse Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
Fan, Shenggen
author_facet Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
author_sort Fan, Shenggen
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.
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spelling CGSpace1669112025-05-14T10:23:47Z Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita supply balance projections trade production imports income elasticities yields models china This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self‐sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infrastructure constraints on grain imports. 1997-06 2024-12-19T12:56:48Z 2024-12-19T12:56:48Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/166911 en Wiley Fan, Shenggen; Agcaoili‐Sombilla, Mercedita. 1997. Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ. Aus J Agri and Res Econ, Volume 41 no. 2 p. 169-190
spellingShingle supply balance
projections
trade
production
imports
income elasticities
yields
models
china
Fan, Shenggen
Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita
Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_full Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_fullStr Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_full_unstemmed Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_short Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
title_sort why projections on china s future food supply and demand differ
topic supply balance
projections
trade
production
imports
income elasticities
yields
models
china
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/166911
work_keys_str_mv AT fanshenggen whyprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer
AT agcaoilisombillamercedita whyprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer