Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments
The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elev...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2017
|
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164964 |
| _version_ | 1855532808411283456 |
|---|---|
| author | Hasegawa, Toshihiro Li, Tao Yin, Xinyou Zhu, Yan Boote, Kenneth Baker, Jeffrey Bregaglio, Simone Buis, Samuel Confalonieri, Roberto Fugice, Job Fumoto, Tamon Gaydon, Donald Kumar, Soora Naresh Lafarge, Tanguy Marcaida III, Manuel Masutomi, Yuji Nakagawa, Hiroshi Oriol, Philippe Ruget, Françoise Singh, Upendra Tang, Liang Tao, Fulu Wakatsuki, Hitomi Wallach, Daniel Wang, Yulong Wilson, Lloyd Ted Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yubin Yoshida, Hiroe Zhang, Zhao Zhu, Jianguo |
| author_browse | Baker, Jeffrey Boote, Kenneth Bregaglio, Simone Buis, Samuel Confalonieri, Roberto Fugice, Job Fumoto, Tamon Gaydon, Donald Hasegawa, Toshihiro Kumar, Soora Naresh Lafarge, Tanguy Li, Tao Marcaida III, Manuel Masutomi, Yuji Nakagawa, Hiroshi Oriol, Philippe Ruget, Françoise Singh, Upendra Tang, Liang Tao, Fulu Wakatsuki, Hitomi Wallach, Daniel Wang, Yulong Wilson, Lloyd Ted Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yubin Yin, Xinyou Yoshida, Hiroe Zhang, Zhao Zhu, Jianguo Zhu, Yan |
| author_facet | Hasegawa, Toshihiro Li, Tao Yin, Xinyou Zhu, Yan Boote, Kenneth Baker, Jeffrey Bregaglio, Simone Buis, Samuel Confalonieri, Roberto Fugice, Job Fumoto, Tamon Gaydon, Donald Kumar, Soora Naresh Lafarge, Tanguy Marcaida III, Manuel Masutomi, Yuji Nakagawa, Hiroshi Oriol, Philippe Ruget, Françoise Singh, Upendra Tang, Liang Tao, Fulu Wakatsuki, Hitomi Wallach, Daniel Wang, Yulong Wilson, Lloyd Ted Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yubin Yoshida, Hiroe Zhang, Zhao Zhu, Jianguo |
| author_sort | Hasegawa, Toshihiro |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace164964 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateRange | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1649642024-12-19T14:13:06Z Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments Hasegawa, Toshihiro Li, Tao Yin, Xinyou Zhu, Yan Boote, Kenneth Baker, Jeffrey Bregaglio, Simone Buis, Samuel Confalonieri, Roberto Fugice, Job Fumoto, Tamon Gaydon, Donald Kumar, Soora Naresh Lafarge, Tanguy Marcaida III, Manuel Masutomi, Yuji Nakagawa, Hiroshi Oriol, Philippe Ruget, Françoise Singh, Upendra Tang, Liang Tao, Fulu Wakatsuki, Hitomi Wallach, Daniel Wang, Yulong Wilson, Lloyd Ted Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yubin Yoshida, Hiroe Zhang, Zhao Zhu, Jianguo The CO2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO2] (E-[CO2]) by comparison to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO2] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO2] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO2] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO2] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO2] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change. 2017-11-01 2024-12-19T12:54:31Z 2024-12-19T12:54:31Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164964 en Open Access Springer Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Baker, Jeffrey; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fugice, Job; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Lafarge, Tanguy; Marcaida III, Manuel; Masutomi, Yuji; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Yulong; Wilson, Lloyd Ted; Yang, Lianxin; Yang, Yubin; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao and Zhu, Jianguo. 2017. Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments. Sci Rep, Volume 7, no. 1 |
| spellingShingle | Hasegawa, Toshihiro Li, Tao Yin, Xinyou Zhu, Yan Boote, Kenneth Baker, Jeffrey Bregaglio, Simone Buis, Samuel Confalonieri, Roberto Fugice, Job Fumoto, Tamon Gaydon, Donald Kumar, Soora Naresh Lafarge, Tanguy Marcaida III, Manuel Masutomi, Yuji Nakagawa, Hiroshi Oriol, Philippe Ruget, Françoise Singh, Upendra Tang, Liang Tao, Fulu Wakatsuki, Hitomi Wallach, Daniel Wang, Yulong Wilson, Lloyd Ted Yang, Lianxin Yang, Yubin Yoshida, Hiroe Zhang, Zhao Zhu, Jianguo Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title | Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title_full | Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title_fullStr | Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title_short | Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with free-air CO2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| title_sort | causes of variation among rice models in yield response to co2 examined with free air co2 enrichment and growth chamber experiments |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164964 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hasegawatoshihiro causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT litao causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT yinxinyou causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT zhuyan causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT bootekenneth causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT bakerjeffrey causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT bregagliosimone causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT buissamuel causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT confalonieriroberto causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT fugicejob causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT fumototamon causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT gaydondonald causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT kumarsooranaresh causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT lafargetanguy causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT marcaidaiiimanuel causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT masutomiyuji causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT nakagawahiroshi causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT oriolphilippe causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT rugetfrancoise causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT singhupendra causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT tangliang causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT taofulu causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT wakatsukihitomi causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT wallachdaniel causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT wangyulong causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT wilsonlloydted causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT yanglianxin causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT yangyubin causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT yoshidahiroe causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT zhangzhao causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments AT zhujianguo causesofvariationamongricemodelsinyieldresponsetoco2examinedwithfreeairco2enrichmentandgrowthchamberexperiments |