Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India
Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts o...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164143 |
| _version_ | 1855535345909628928 |
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| author | Chadalavada, Keerthi Gummadi, Sridhar Kundeti, Koteswara Rao Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy Deevi, Kumara Charyulu Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar |
| author_browse | Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari Chadalavada, Keerthi Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji Deevi, Kumara Charyulu Gummadi, Sridhar Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy Kundeti, Koteswara Rao Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar |
| author_facet | Chadalavada, Keerthi Gummadi, Sridhar Kundeti, Koteswara Rao Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy Deevi, Kumara Charyulu Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar |
| author_sort | Chadalavada, Keerthi |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary between −4% and +40% as well as +10% and +59% in the near future (2040–2069) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, and between +20% and +70% (RCP 4.5) as well as +38% and +89% (RCP 8.5) in the far future (2070–2099). Even though surface air temperatures are increasing in future climate change projections, the findings suggest that an increase in the post-rainy season sorghum yields was due to an increase in the rainfall amounts up to 23% and an increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels by the end of the 21st century. The results suggest that the projected climate change during the post-rainy season over India is an opportunity for smallholders to capitalize on the increase in rainfall amounts and further increase sorghum yields with appropriate crop management strategies. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace164143 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | MDPI |
| publisherStr | MDPI |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1641432025-02-19T14:26:27Z Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India Chadalavada, Keerthi Gummadi, Sridhar Kundeti, Koteswara Rao Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy Deevi, Kumara Charyulu Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar management monitoring policy and law renewable energy sustainability and the environment geography planning and development Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary between −4% and +40% as well as +10% and +59% in the near future (2040–2069) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, and between +20% and +70% (RCP 4.5) as well as +38% and +89% (RCP 8.5) in the far future (2070–2099). Even though surface air temperatures are increasing in future climate change projections, the findings suggest that an increase in the post-rainy season sorghum yields was due to an increase in the rainfall amounts up to 23% and an increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels by the end of the 21st century. The results suggest that the projected climate change during the post-rainy season over India is an opportunity for smallholders to capitalize on the increase in rainfall amounts and further increase sorghum yields with appropriate crop management strategies. 2021-12-29 2024-12-19T12:53:30Z 2024-12-19T12:53:30Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164143 en Open Access MDPI Chadalavada, Keerthi; Gummadi, Sridhar; Kundeti, Koteswara Rao; Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy; Deevi, Kumara Charyulu; Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji; Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari and Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar. 2021. Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India. Sustainability, Volume 14 no. 1 p. 334 |
| spellingShingle | management monitoring policy and law renewable energy sustainability and the environment geography planning and development Chadalavada, Keerthi Gummadi, Sridhar Kundeti, Koteswara Rao Kadiyala, Dakshina Murthy Deevi, Kumara Charyulu Dakhore, Kailas Kamaji Bollipo Diana, Ranjitha Kumari Thiruppathi, Senthil Kumar Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title | Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title_full | Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title_fullStr | Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title_short | Simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yields in India |
| title_sort | simulating potential impacts of future climate change on post rainy season sorghum yields in india |
| topic | management monitoring policy and law renewable energy sustainability and the environment geography planning and development |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/164143 |
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