Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia
We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not chang...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
United Nations University
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163301 |
| _version_ | 1855527828520435712 |
|---|---|
| author | Hirvonen, Kalle Machado, Elia Simons, Andrew M. |
| author_browse | Hirvonen, Kalle Machado, Elia Simons, Andrew M. |
| author_facet | Hirvonen, Kalle Machado, Elia Simons, Andrew M. |
| author_sort | Hirvonen, Kalle |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not change the risk of violent events, but reduced the likelihood of civil unrest by almost half when compared to non-PSNP districts. These effects are most pronounced during the period 2014–18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions of Ethiopia. Examining mechanisms, we find evidence that the PSNP fostered greater sympathy and satisfaction with the ruling party, making PSNP households less likely to engage in demonstrations.
JEL classification: D74, I38, H53, Q34 |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace163301 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | United Nations University |
| publisherStr | United Nations University |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1633012025-12-08T10:29:22Z Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia Hirvonen, Kalle Machado, Elia Simons, Andrew M. conflicts public works risk assessment violence We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not change the risk of violent events, but reduced the likelihood of civil unrest by almost half when compared to non-PSNP districts. These effects are most pronounced during the period 2014–18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions of Ethiopia. Examining mechanisms, we find evidence that the PSNP fostered greater sympathy and satisfaction with the ruling party, making PSNP households less likely to engage in demonstrations. JEL classification: D74, I38, H53, Q34 2024-12 2024-12-10T18:59:00Z 2024-12-10T18:59:00Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163301 en https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102549 Open Access United Nations University Hirvonen, Kalle; Machado, Elia; and Simons, Andrew M. 2024. Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia. WIDER Working Paper 2024/78. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. https://doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2024/541-7 |
| spellingShingle | conflicts public works risk assessment violence Hirvonen, Kalle Machado, Elia Simons, Andrew M. Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title | Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title_full | Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title_short | Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia |
| title_sort | can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest evidence from a large scale public works programme in ethiopia |
| topic | conflicts public works risk assessment violence |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/163301 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hirvonenkalle cansocialassistancereduceviolentconflictandcivilunrestevidencefromalargescalepublicworksprogrammeinethiopia AT machadoelia cansocialassistancereduceviolentconflictandcivilunrestevidencefromalargescalepublicworksprogrammeinethiopia AT simonsandrewm cansocialassistancereduceviolentconflictandcivilunrestevidencefromalargescalepublicworksprogrammeinethiopia |