Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America
Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957 |
| _version_ | 1855529944582455296 |
|---|---|
| author | Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora |
| author_browse | Berrospi, Maria Lucia Brown, Melissa Ceballos, Francisco Hernandez, Manuel A. Lopez, Elena Mora Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia |
| author_facet | Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora |
| author_sort | Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace162957 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1629572025-11-06T06:42:19Z Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora shock food prices fertilizers markets price volatility inflation food security welfare Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. 2024-12-02 2024-12-02T20:43:15Z 2024-12-02T20:43:15Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149816 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154499 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/145619 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957 |
| spellingShingle | shock food prices fertilizers markets price volatility inflation food security welfare Hernandez, Manuel A. Ceballos, Francisco Berrospi, Maria Lucia Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia Brown, Melissa Lopez, Elena Mora Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_full | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_fullStr | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_short | Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America |
| title_sort | price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in central america |
| topic | shock food prices fertilizers markets price volatility inflation food security welfare |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hernandezmanuela priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT ceballosfrancisco priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT berrospimarialucia priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT peregovivianamariaeugenia priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT brownmelissa priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica AT lopezelenamora priceandvolatilitytransmissionfrominternationaltodomesticfoodandfertilizermarketsincentralamerica |