Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria

Sustainably increasing the low rates of inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers is a primary policy objective in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recognized constraints to fertilizer usage by resource-constrained and risk-averse farmers include (i) overly generalized recommendations, (ii) recommended app...

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Autores principales: Chamberlin, Jordan, Bisrat Gebrekidan, Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M., Hijmans, Robert J., Silva, Joao Vasco, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo
Formato: Informe técnico
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: EiA 2024
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162890
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author Chamberlin, Jordan
Bisrat Gebrekidan
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M.
Hijmans, Robert J.
Silva, Joao Vasco
Oyakhilomen Oyinbo
author_browse Bisrat Gebrekidan
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M.
Chamberlin, Jordan
Hijmans, Robert J.
Oyakhilomen Oyinbo
Silva, Joao Vasco
author_facet Chamberlin, Jordan
Bisrat Gebrekidan
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M.
Hijmans, Robert J.
Silva, Joao Vasco
Oyakhilomen Oyinbo
author_sort Chamberlin, Jordan
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Sustainably increasing the low rates of inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers is a primary policy objective in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recognized constraints to fertilizer usage by resource-constrained and risk-averse farmers include (i) overly generalized recommendations, (ii) recommended application rates which are not profitable, and (iii) riskiness of productive investments in rainfed farming systems. To better identify and address these constraints, we describe a spatially-explicit modeling framework which uses empirical yield response data distributed across time and space to estimate the agronomic and economic returns to fertilizer investments. A novel feature of our framework is the formal incorporation of stochastic production outcomes, which allows us to model the riskiness of returns. We illustrate the application of this framework with data on maize farming in Nigeria. We also show how model results can be used to frame intervention areas for policy and investment programming designed to improve agricultural productivity through increased fertilizer usage.
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language Inglés
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publishDateSort 2024
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spelling CGSpace1628902025-05-04T09:22:06Z Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria Chamberlin, Jordan Bisrat Gebrekidan Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M. Hijmans, Robert J. Silva, Joao Vasco Oyakhilomen Oyinbo fertilizers smallholders maize production spatial analysis Sustainably increasing the low rates of inorganic fertilizer use by smallholder farmers is a primary policy objective in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recognized constraints to fertilizer usage by resource-constrained and risk-averse farmers include (i) overly generalized recommendations, (ii) recommended application rates which are not profitable, and (iii) riskiness of productive investments in rainfed farming systems. To better identify and address these constraints, we describe a spatially-explicit modeling framework which uses empirical yield response data distributed across time and space to estimate the agronomic and economic returns to fertilizer investments. A novel feature of our framework is the formal incorporation of stochastic production outcomes, which allows us to model the riskiness of returns. We illustrate the application of this framework with data on maize farming in Nigeria. We also show how model results can be used to frame intervention areas for policy and investment programming designed to improve agricultural productivity through increased fertilizer usage. 2024-11 2024-11-29T19:53:07Z 2024-11-29T19:53:07Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162890 en Open Access application/pdf EiA Chamberlin, J., Bisrat Gebrekidan, Bonilla Cedrez, C.M., Hijmans, R.J., Silva, J.V., Oyakhilomen Oyinbo (2024). Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria. EIA. https://hdl.handle.net/10883/35091
spellingShingle fertilizers
smallholders
maize
production
spatial analysis
Chamberlin, Jordan
Bisrat Gebrekidan
Bonilla Cedrez, Camila M.
Hijmans, Robert J.
Silva, Joao Vasco
Oyakhilomen Oyinbo
Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title_full Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title_fullStr Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title_short Integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments: Application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in Nigeria
title_sort integrated spatial modeling of fertilizer investment returns to guide strategic investments application of a spatial ex ante analytical framework to smallholder maize production in nigeria
topic fertilizers
smallholders
maize
production
spatial analysis
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162890
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