HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling
This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers’ HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2009
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 |
| _version_ | 1855525144136515584 |
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| author | Thurlow, James George, Gavin Gow, Jeff |
| author_browse | George, Gavin Gow, Jeff Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Thurlow, James George, Gavin Gow, Jeff |
| author_sort | Thurlow, James |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers’ HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produces both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economywide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. The results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-term rate of technical change. However, the impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimizes the economic costs of increased mortality. In contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher-income households despite the lower prevalence of HIV among these households. We conclude that the increase in economic growth achieved through addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure this move will place on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher-income households. Our findings reveal that HIV/AIDS will place a substantial burden on future economic development in KZN and RSA, confirming the need for policies to curb the economic costs of this pandemic. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace161872 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateRange | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1618722025-11-06T06:12:17Z HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling Thurlow, James George, Gavin Gow, Jeff HIV infections growth poverty development policies This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers’ HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produces both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economywide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. The results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-term rate of technical change. However, the impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimizes the economic costs of increased mortality. In contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher-income households despite the lower prevalence of HIV among these households. We conclude that the increase in economic growth achieved through addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure this move will place on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher-income households. Our findings reveal that HIV/AIDS will place a substantial burden on future economic development in KZN and RSA, confirming the need for policies to curb the economic costs of this pandemic. 2009 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z 2024-11-21T09:59:00Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thurlow, James; George, Gavin; Gow, Jeff. 2009. HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 864. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 |
| spellingShingle | HIV infections growth poverty development policies Thurlow, James George, Gavin Gow, Jeff HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title_full | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title_fullStr | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title_short | HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: Integrating firm-level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| title_sort | hiv aids growth and poverty in kwazulu natal and south africa integrating firm level surveys with demographic and economywide modeling |
| topic | HIV infections growth poverty development policies |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161872 |
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