Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 3...
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
1997
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161200 |
| _version_ | 1855518264209178624 |
|---|---|
| author | Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. |
| author_browse | Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. Fan, Shenggen |
| author_facet | Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. |
| author_sort | Fan, Shenggen |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences arrive mainly in the supply projections (the combined effect of land decline and yield growth). The paper also suggests methodology improvements needed in making future projections of China's grain economy, such as endogenizing government policies, and taking into account the linkage between the agricultural with the non-agricultural sectors, technical change in livestock industry, and infrastructure constraints on grain imports. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace161200 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publishDateRange | 1997 |
| publishDateSort | 1997 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1612002025-11-06T05:32:22Z Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. macroeconomics food supply forecasting This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences arrive mainly in the supply projections (the combined effect of land decline and yield growth). The paper also suggests methodology improvements needed in making future projections of China's grain economy, such as endogenizing government policies, and taking into account the linkage between the agricultural with the non-agricultural sectors, technical change in livestock industry, and infrastructure constraints on grain imports. 1997 2024-11-21T09:54:07Z 2024-11-21T09:54:07Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161200 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Fan, Shenggen; Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. 1997. Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? EPTD Discussion Paper 22. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161200 |
| spellingShingle | macroeconomics food supply forecasting Fan, Shenggen Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title | Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title_full | Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title_fullStr | Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title_short | Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ? |
| title_sort | why do projections on china s future food supply and demand differ |
| topic | macroeconomics food supply forecasting |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/161200 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fanshenggen whydoprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer AT agcaoilisombillamerceditac whydoprojectionsonchinasfuturefoodsupplyanddemanddiffer |