Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?

There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimat...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kourtellos, Andros, Tan, Chih Ming, Zhang, Xiaobo
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2007
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160200
_version_ 1855534182191595520
author Kourtellos, Andros
Tan, Chih Ming
Zhang, Xiaobo
author_browse Kourtellos, Andros
Tan, Chih Ming
Zhang, Xiaobo
author_facet Kourtellos, Andros
Tan, Chih Ming
Zhang, Xiaobo
author_sort Kourtellos, Andros
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnolinguistic fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors... The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals.
format Artículo preliminar
id CGSpace160200
institution CGIAR Consortium
language Inglés
publishDate 2007
publishDateRange 2007
publishDateSort 2007
publisher International Food Policy Research Institute
publisherStr International Food Policy Research Institute
record_format dspace
spelling CGSpace1602002025-11-06T07:08:39Z Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear? Kourtellos, Andros Tan, Chih Ming Zhang, Xiaobo economic development typology There have been intensive debates on the role of aid in promoting economic development in developing countries by using cross-country analyses. Cross-country regression assuming linear relationship between aid and growth and without taking into heterogeneity of countries would produce biased estimates. To correct this, in this paper we investigate the relationship between foreign aid and growth using recently developed sample splitting methods that allow us to simultaneously uncover evidence for the existence of heterogeneity and nonlinearity. We also address model uncertainty in the context of these methods. We find some evidence that aid may have heterogeneous effects on growth across two growth regimes defined by ethnolinguistic fractionalization. However, when we account for model uncertainty, we find no evidence to suggest that the relationship between aid and growth is nonlinear. In fact, our results suggest that the partial effect of aid on growth is likely to be weakly negative. In this sense, our findings suggest that aid is potentially counterproductive to growth with outcomes not meeting the expectations of donors... The methodology developed in this paper can be used to identify typologies on other outcome variables, such as those included in the Millennium Development Goals. 2007 2024-11-21T09:50:15Z 2024-11-21T09:50:15Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160200 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Kourtellos, Andros; Tan, Chih Ming; Zhang, Xiaobo. Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear? IFPRI Discussion Paper 694. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160200
spellingShingle economic development
typology
Kourtellos, Andros
Tan, Chih Ming
Zhang, Xiaobo
Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title_full Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title_fullStr Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title_full_unstemmed Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title_short Is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear?
title_sort is the relationship between aid and economic growth nonlinear
topic economic development
typology
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160200
work_keys_str_mv AT kourtellosandros istherelationshipbetweenaidandeconomicgrowthnonlinear
AT tanchihming istherelationshipbetweenaidandeconomicgrowthnonlinear
AT zhangxiaobo istherelationshipbetweenaidandeconomicgrowthnonlinear