Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy
Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country’s development prospec...
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2007
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160193 |
| _version_ | 1855517128315109376 |
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| author | Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Thurlow, James |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country’s development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana’s growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is undermining economic diversification. Although providing treatment is projected to reclaim a quarter of the lost growth and a third of the poverty caused by the pandemic, the fiscal burden of treatment will constrain diversification, thus underscoring Botswana’s need for development assistance. Furthermore, focusing resources toward treatment may worsen inequality, since the primary beneficiaries will be middle-income and urban households. Therefore, while HIV/AIDS is undermining Botswana’s success story, both unemployment and a stagnant rural economy will remain binding constraints against further pro-poor development. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace160193 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateRange | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1601932025-11-06T05:25:17Z Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy Thurlow, James growth poverty economic development hiv/aids Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country’s development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana’s growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is undermining economic diversification. Although providing treatment is projected to reclaim a quarter of the lost growth and a third of the poverty caused by the pandemic, the fiscal burden of treatment will constrain diversification, thus underscoring Botswana’s need for development assistance. Furthermore, focusing resources toward treatment may worsen inequality, since the primary beneficiaries will be middle-income and urban households. Therefore, while HIV/AIDS is undermining Botswana’s success story, both unemployment and a stagnant rural economy will remain binding constraints against further pro-poor development. 2007 2024-11-21T09:50:14Z 2024-11-21T09:50:14Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160193 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thurlow, James. Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy. IFPRI Discussion Paper 697. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160193 |
| spellingShingle | growth poverty economic development hiv/aids Thurlow, James Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title | Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title_full | Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title_fullStr | Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title_short | Is HIV/AIDS undermining Botswana’s ‘success story’? implications for development strategy |
| title_sort | is hiv aids undermining botswana s success story implications for development strategy |
| topic | growth poverty economic development hiv/aids |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/160193 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thurlowjames ishivaidsunderminingbotswanassuccessstoryimplicationsfordevelopmentstrategy |