Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020
A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agri...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
1996
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117 |
| _version_ | 1855540813031800832 |
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| author | Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. |
| author_browse | Lofgren, Hans Nygaard, David F. Robinson, Sherman |
| author_facet | Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. |
| author_sort | Lofgren, Hans |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A Turtle scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth." |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace157117 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 1996 |
| publishDateRange | 1996 |
| publishDateSort | 1996 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1571172025-11-06T07:23:29Z Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. economic indicators agriculture economic aspects water supply irrigation computable general equilibrium models A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A Turtle scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth." 1996 2024-10-24T12:47:27Z 2024-10-24T12:47:27Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Nygaard, David F. 1996. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020. TMD Discussion Paper 11. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117 |
| spellingShingle | economic indicators agriculture economic aspects water supply irrigation computable general equilibrium models Lofgren, Hans Robinson, Sherman Nygaard, David F. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_full | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_fullStr | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_short | Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020 |
| title_sort | tiger or turtle exploring alternative futures for egypt to 2020 |
| topic | economic indicators agriculture economic aspects water supply irrigation computable general equilibrium models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lofgrenhans tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 AT robinsonsherman tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 AT nygaarddavidf tigerorturtleexploringalternativefuturesforegyptto2020 |