Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas
This paper analyzes two potential trade liberalization scenarios – a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and possible links between MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) – in a world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model also incorporates some macro elements such as a cash-in-advan...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2002
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/156439 |
| _version_ | 1855527476895154176 |
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| author | Diao, Xinshen Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Robinson, Sherman |
| author_browse | Diao, Xinshen Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Robinson, Sherman |
| author_facet | Diao, Xinshen Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Robinson, Sherman |
| author_sort | Diao, Xinshen |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper analyzes two potential trade liberalization scenarios – a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and possible links between MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) – in a world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model also incorporates some macro elements such as a cash-in-advance mechanism and rigidities in wages and exchange rates. The empirical results show that the two alternative regional integration scenarios are good for the participants while have little impact on the non-participants. Both scenarios are net trade creating, as trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and the trade-diversion has relatively minor effects on the affected regions. The gains are larger for the Latin American participants than for their large potential partners – the U.S. and EU. These results are consistent with earlier studies of NAFTA, which also predicted small positive gains for the U.S. and large gains for Mexico. Many countries in Latin America are currently undergoing macroeconomic strains, and growth in the region has slowed. In this environment, external shocks and stabilization and structural adjustment programs are likely to lead to significant swings in trade balances and exchange rates. These issues will have to be considered in acknowledging that it is hard to reap the long-term benefits of trade liberalization in an environment of macroeconomic instability. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace156439 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateRange | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1564392025-11-06T06:26:55Z Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas Diao, Xinshen Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Robinson, Sherman trade liberalization european union countries commercial policies equilibrium theory models economic situation computable general equilibrium models This paper analyzes two potential trade liberalization scenarios – a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and possible links between MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) – in a world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model also incorporates some macro elements such as a cash-in-advance mechanism and rigidities in wages and exchange rates. The empirical results show that the two alternative regional integration scenarios are good for the participants while have little impact on the non-participants. Both scenarios are net trade creating, as trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and the trade-diversion has relatively minor effects on the affected regions. The gains are larger for the Latin American participants than for their large potential partners – the U.S. and EU. These results are consistent with earlier studies of NAFTA, which also predicted small positive gains for the U.S. and large gains for Mexico. Many countries in Latin America are currently undergoing macroeconomic strains, and growth in the region has slowed. In this environment, external shocks and stabilization and structural adjustment programs are likely to lead to significant swings in trade balances and exchange rates. These issues will have to be considered in acknowledging that it is hard to reap the long-term benefits of trade liberalization in an environment of macroeconomic instability. 2002 2024-10-24T12:44:10Z 2024-10-24T12:44:10Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/156439 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Diao, Xinshen; Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio; Robinson, Sherman. 2002. Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas. TMD Discussion Paper 90. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/156439 |
| spellingShingle | trade liberalization european union countries commercial policies equilibrium theory models economic situation computable general equilibrium models Diao, Xinshen Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio Robinson, Sherman Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title | Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title_full | Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title_short | Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas |
| title_sort | scenarios for trade integration in the americas |
| topic | trade liberalization european union countries commercial policies equilibrium theory models economic situation computable general equilibrium models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/156439 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT diaoxinshen scenariosfortradeintegrationintheamericas AT diazbonillaeugenio scenariosfortradeintegrationintheamericas AT robinsonsherman scenariosfortradeintegrationintheamericas |