Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change
Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2001
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155765 |
| _version_ | 1855519164759801856 |
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| author | Harris, Rebecca Lee Robinson, Sherman |
| author_browse | Harris, Rebecca Lee Robinson, Sherman |
| author_facet | Harris, Rebecca Lee Robinson, Sherman |
| author_sort | Harris, Rebecca Lee |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these losses |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace155765 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2001 |
| publishDateRange | 2001 |
| publishDateSort | 2001 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1557652025-11-06T05:38:09Z Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change Harris, Rebecca Lee Robinson, Sherman agriculture environmental factors climate change models agricultural productivity forecasting Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these losses 2001 2024-10-24T12:42:32Z 2024-10-24T12:42:32Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155765 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Harris, Rebecca Lee; Robinson, Sherman. 2001. Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change. TMD Discussion Paper 83. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155765 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture environmental factors climate change models agricultural productivity forecasting Harris, Rebecca Lee Robinson, Sherman Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title | Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title_full | Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title_fullStr | Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title_short | Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| title_sort | economy wide effects of el nino southern oscillation enso in mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change |
| topic | agriculture environmental factors climate change models agricultural productivity forecasting |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155765 |
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