The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy
Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season endin...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2011
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013 |
| _version_ | 1855516023900340224 |
|---|---|
| author | Oktaviani, Rina Amaliah, Syarifah Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. |
| author_browse | Amaliah, Syarifah Oktaviani, Rina Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. |
| author_facet | Oktaviani, Rina Amaliah, Syarifah Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. |
| author_sort | Oktaviani, Rina |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace155013 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1550132025-11-06T05:18:38Z The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy Oktaviani, Rina Amaliah, Syarifah Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. models computable general equilibrium models commodities trade food supply food security climate change technological changes commodity markets resource management economic development prices nutrition malnutrition Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. 2011 2024-10-01T14:05:33Z 2024-10-01T14:05:33Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154919 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Oktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W. and Sulser, Timothy B. 2011. The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1148. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013 |
| spellingShingle | models computable general equilibrium models commodities trade food supply food security climate change technological changes commodity markets resource management economic development prices nutrition malnutrition Oktaviani, Rina Amaliah, Syarifah Ringler, Claudia Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title | The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title_full | The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title_fullStr | The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title_short | The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy |
| title_sort | impact of global climate change on the indonesian economy |
| topic | models computable general equilibrium models commodities trade food supply food security climate change technological changes commodity markets resource management economic development prices nutrition malnutrition |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oktavianirina theimpactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT amaliahsyarifah theimpactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT ringlerclaudia theimpactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT rosegrantmarkw theimpactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT sulsertimothyb theimpactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT oktavianirina impactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT amaliahsyarifah impactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT ringlerclaudia impactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT rosegrantmarkw impactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy AT sulsertimothyb impactofglobalclimatechangeontheindonesianeconomy |