Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis
This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector autoregress...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2010
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154800 |
| _version_ | 1855537420620005376 |
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| author | Kaspersen, Line Lassen Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. |
| author_browse | Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. Kaspersen, Line Lassen |
| author_facet | Kaspersen, Line Lassen Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. |
| author_sort | Kaspersen, Line Lassen |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda - Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining factor for price transmission within the country. However, the case is a bit different for the cash crop, Robusta coffee. In the period in the 1990's with high coffee prices on the world market, prices in Uganda were strongly connected to world prices, and did not depend on the oil price. This indicates that if high demand appears in world markets, such effects could transmit to local markets. Thus, price transmission from world markets has only been evident in the case of booming prices of an exported commodity, but otherwise agricultural commodity markets are poorly linked. The empirical analysis thus indicates that rising food prices (of little-traded crops) on world markets will not have a direct effect on food prices in Uganda. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace154800 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateRange | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1548002025-11-06T07:25:23Z Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis Kaspersen, Line Lassen Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. agriculture commodities markets prices This paper investigates price transmission for agricultural commodities between world markets and the Ugandan market in an attempt to determine the impact of world market prices on the Ugandan market. Based on the realization that price formation is not a static concept, a dynamic vector autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda - Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial price relations, i.e. the price variations between geographically separated markets in Uganda and the world markets. Our analysis indicates that food markets in Uganda, based on our study of sorghum price transmission, are not integrated into world markets, and that oil prices are a very determining factor for price transmission within the country. However, the case is a bit different for the cash crop, Robusta coffee. In the period in the 1990's with high coffee prices on the world market, prices in Uganda were strongly connected to world prices, and did not depend on the oil price. This indicates that if high demand appears in world markets, such effects could transmit to local markets. Thus, price transmission from world markets has only been evident in the case of booming prices of an exported commodity, but otherwise agricultural commodity markets are poorly linked. The empirical analysis thus indicates that rising food prices (of little-traded crops) on world markets will not have a direct effect on food prices in Uganda. 2010 2024-10-01T14:03:57Z 2024-10-01T14:03:57Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154800 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Kaspersen, Line Lassen; Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. 2010. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis. USSP Background Paper 6. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154800 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture commodities markets prices Kaspersen, Line Lassen Helene Ystanes Føyn, T. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title | Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title_full | Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title_fullStr | Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title_short | Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| title_sort | price transmission for agricultural commodities in uganda an empirical vector autoregressive analysis |
| topic | agriculture commodities markets prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154800 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kaspersenlinelassen pricetransmissionforagriculturalcommoditiesinugandaanempiricalvectorautoregressiveanalysis AT heleneystanesføynt pricetransmissionforagriculturalcommoditiesinugandaanempiricalvectorautoregressiveanalysis |