Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique
Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Springer
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154548 |
| _version_ | 1855517959586316288 |
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| author | Arndt, Channing Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James Fant, Charles Wright, Len |
| author_browse | Arndt, Channing Fant, Charles Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James Wright, Len |
| author_facet | Arndt, Channing Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James Fant, Charles Wright, Len |
| author_sort | Arndt, Channing |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003-2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key 'no-regret' adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace154548 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1545482025-12-08T10:29:22Z Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique Arndt, Channing Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James Fant, Charles Wright, Len climate change modelling Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$ 2.3 to US $7.4 billion during 2003-2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key 'no-regret' adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies. 2011-01 2024-10-01T14:02:12Z 2024-10-01T14:02:12Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154548 en Open Access Springer Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Tarp, Finn; Thurlow, James; Fant, Charles; Wright, Len. 2011. Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique. Sustainability Science 6(1): 7-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-010-0118-9 |
| spellingShingle | climate change modelling Arndt, Channing Strzepek, Kenneth M. Tarp, Finn Thurlow, James Fant, Charles Wright, Len Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title | Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title_full | Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title_fullStr | Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title_full_unstemmed | Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title_short | Adapting to climate change: An integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique |
| title_sort | adapting to climate change an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for mozambique |
| topic | climate change modelling |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154548 |
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