Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon

Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural...

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Autores principales: Lapola, David Montenegro, Schaldach, Ruediger, Alcamo, Joseph, Bondeau, Alberte, Msangi, Siwa, Priess, Joerg A., Silvestrini, Rafaella, Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: American Meteorological Society 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154527
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author Lapola, David Montenegro
Schaldach, Ruediger
Alcamo, Joseph
Bondeau, Alberte
Msangi, Siwa
Priess, Joerg A.
Silvestrini, Rafaella
Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
author_browse Alcamo, Joseph
Bondeau, Alberte
Lapola, David Montenegro
Msangi, Siwa
Priess, Joerg A.
Schaldach, Ruediger
Silvestrini, Rafaella
Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
author_facet Lapola, David Montenegro
Schaldach, Ruediger
Alcamo, Joseph
Bondeau, Alberte
Msangi, Siwa
Priess, Joerg A.
Silvestrini, Rafaella
Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
author_sort Lapola, David Montenegro
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause
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spelling CGSpace1545272024-11-15T08:53:06Z Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon Lapola, David Montenegro Schaldach, Ruediger Alcamo, Joseph Bondeau, Alberte Msangi, Siwa Priess, Joerg A. Silvestrini, Rafaella Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira climate change deforestation land use Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause 2011-05-31 2024-10-01T14:02:04Z 2024-10-01T14:02:04Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154527 en Limited Access American Meteorological Society Lapola, David Montenegro; Schaldach, Ruediger; Alcamo, Joseph; Bondeau, Alberte; Msangi, Siwa; Priess, Joerg A.; Silvestrini, Rafaella; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira. 2011. Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon. Earth Interactions 15(16) : 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010EI333.1
spellingShingle climate change
deforestation
land use
Lapola, David Montenegro
Schaldach, Ruediger
Alcamo, Joseph
Bondeau, Alberte
Msangi, Siwa
Priess, Joerg A.
Silvestrini, Rafaella
Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira
Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title_full Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title_fullStr Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title_short Impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the Brazilian legal amazon
title_sort impacts of climate change and the end of deforestation on land use in the brazilian legal amazon
topic climate change
deforestation
land use
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154527
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