Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154452 |
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| author | Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte |
| author_browse | Al-Riffai, Perrihan Breisinger, Clemens Funes, José Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Verner, Dorte Zhu, Tingju |
| author_facet | Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte |
| author_sort | Breisinger, Clemens |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of between 1.6 - 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. Finally, while there is some evidence that droughts may become more frequent in the future, it is clear that even without an increase in frequency, drought impacts will continue to put a significant burden on Syria's economy and people. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security and better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of countries and people to climate change. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace154452 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1544522025-11-06T07:23:07Z Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte climate change development drought economic growth poverty There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and subnational-level computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. Despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of between 1.6 - 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. Finally, while there is some evidence that droughts may become more frequent in the future, it is clear that even without an increase in frequency, drought impacts will continue to put a significant burden on Syria's economy and people. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security and better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of countries and people to climate change. 2011 2024-10-01T14:01:36Z 2024-10-01T14:01:36Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154452 en https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007813500024 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard D.; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2011. Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1091. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154452 |
| spellingShingle | climate change development drought economic growth poverty Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title | Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title_full | Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title_fullStr | Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title_short | Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation |
| title_sort | global and local economic impacts of climate change in syria and options for adaptation |
| topic | climate change development drought economic growth poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154452 |
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