Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options
Under the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), implemented from 2005/06 to 2009/10, Ethiopia achieved rapid economic growth and laid a foundation for future growth by making substantial investments in infrastructure and human capital. The Growth and Transformation...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2011
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154352 |
| _version_ | 1855521946273316864 |
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| author | Engida, Ermias Tamru, Seneshaw Tsehaye, Eyasu Debowicz, Dario Dorosh, Paul A. Robinson, Sherman |
| author_browse | Debowicz, Dario Dorosh, Paul A. Engida, Ermias Robinson, Sherman Tamru, Seneshaw Tsehaye, Eyasu |
| author_facet | Engida, Ermias Tamru, Seneshaw Tsehaye, Eyasu Debowicz, Dario Dorosh, Paul A. Robinson, Sherman |
| author_sort | Engida, Ermias |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Under the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), implemented from 2005/06 to 2009/10, Ethiopia achieved rapid economic growth and laid a foundation for future growth by making substantial investments in infrastructure and human capital. The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) for 2010/11-2014/15, Ethiopia's new five year plan, sets even higher growth and investment targets. This paper analyzes these new GTP investment and growth targets using a Computer General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Ethiopian economy to assess the implications of the plan on sectoral growth and household incomes. The analysis of the GTP investment plan indicates that achieving its high growth targets will require rapid increases in total factor productivity and large-scale mobilization of domestic and foreign savings. The 4.9 percent annual Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth needed to reproduce the high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth under PASDEP (2005/06 to 2009/10) or to continue this growth into the future is very high in comparison to those that have been achieved in other fast-growing economies such as India, China, and Indonesia. Achieving the GTP target GDP growth rates requires even higher TFP growth: by 5.8 and 7.6 percent per year respectively in the medium and high growth GTP scenarios. To some extent, some of this productivity growth could be achieved through reduced underemployment. Nonetheless, these results suggest that the projected GDP growth outcomes are very optimistic. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace154352 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateRange | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1543522025-11-06T05:53:16Z Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options Engida, Ermias Tamru, Seneshaw Tsehaye, Eyasu Debowicz, Dario Dorosh, Paul A. Robinson, Sherman finance economic development mathematical models computable general equilibrium models Under the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), implemented from 2005/06 to 2009/10, Ethiopia achieved rapid economic growth and laid a foundation for future growth by making substantial investments in infrastructure and human capital. The Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) for 2010/11-2014/15, Ethiopia's new five year plan, sets even higher growth and investment targets. This paper analyzes these new GTP investment and growth targets using a Computer General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Ethiopian economy to assess the implications of the plan on sectoral growth and household incomes. The analysis of the GTP investment plan indicates that achieving its high growth targets will require rapid increases in total factor productivity and large-scale mobilization of domestic and foreign savings. The 4.9 percent annual Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth needed to reproduce the high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth under PASDEP (2005/06 to 2009/10) or to continue this growth into the future is very high in comparison to those that have been achieved in other fast-growing economies such as India, China, and Indonesia. Achieving the GTP target GDP growth rates requires even higher TFP growth: by 5.8 and 7.6 percent per year respectively in the medium and high growth GTP scenarios. To some extent, some of this productivity growth could be achieved through reduced underemployment. Nonetheless, these results suggest that the projected GDP growth outcomes are very optimistic. 2011 2024-10-01T14:01:02Z 2024-10-01T14:01:02Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154352 en https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153828 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ethiopian Development Research Institute Engida, Ermias; Tamru, Seneshaw; Tsehaye, Eyasu; Debowicz, Dario; Dorosh, Paul A.; Robinson, Sherman. 2011. Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options. ESSP II Working Paper 30. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154352 |
| spellingShingle | finance economic development mathematical models computable general equilibrium models Engida, Ermias Tamru, Seneshaw Tsehaye, Eyasu Debowicz, Dario Dorosh, Paul A. Robinson, Sherman Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title | Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title_full | Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title_fullStr | Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title_short | Ethiopia's growth and transformation plan: A computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| title_sort | ethiopia s growth and transformation plan a computable general equilibrium analysis of alternative financing options |
| topic | finance economic development mathematical models computable general equilibrium models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154352 |
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