The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis

There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Despite continuous international political pressure to appreciate its currency, the Chinese government has resisted significant changes. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi appr...

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Main Authors: Yang, Jun, Zhang, Wei, Tokgoz, Simla
Format: Artículo preliminar
Language:Inglés
Published: International Food Policy Research Institute 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153856
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author Yang, Jun
Zhang, Wei
Tokgoz, Simla
author_browse Tokgoz, Simla
Yang, Jun
Zhang, Wei
author_facet Yang, Jun
Zhang, Wei
Tokgoz, Simla
author_sort Yang, Jun
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Despite continuous international political pressure to appreciate its currency, the Chinese government has resisted significant changes. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve.
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spelling CGSpace1538562025-11-06T07:22:41Z The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis Yang, Jun Zhang, Wei Tokgoz, Simla computable general equilibrium models exchange rate economic impact currencies There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Despite continuous international political pressure to appreciate its currency, the Chinese government has resisted significant changes. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve. 2012 2024-10-01T13:58:01Z 2024-10-01T13:58:01Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153856 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Yang, Jun; Zhang, Wei; Tokgoz, Simla. 2012. The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1178. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153856
spellingShingle computable general equilibrium models
exchange rate
economic impact
currencies
Yang, Jun
Zhang, Wei
Tokgoz, Simla
The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title_full The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title_fullStr The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title_full_unstemmed The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title_short The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world: A global computable general equilibrium analysis
title_sort macroeconomic impacts of chinese currency appreciation on china and the rest of world a global computable general equilibrium analysis
topic computable general equilibrium models
exchange rate
economic impact
currencies
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153856
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