Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios
Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performan...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2010
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153659 |
| _version_ | 1855514342905085952 |
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| author | Ringler, Claudia Zhu, Tingju Cai, Ximing Koo, Jawoo Wang, Dingbao |
| author_browse | Cai, Ximing Koo, Jawoo Ringler, Claudia Wang, Dingbao Zhu, Tingju |
| author_facet | Ringler, Claudia Zhu, Tingju Cai, Ximing Koo, Jawoo Wang, Dingbao |
| author_sort | Ringler, Claudia |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performance regarding past predictions of temperature and precipitation at the level of 2o x 2o grid cells, generated by a recently developed entropy-based downscaling model. Based on past performance, the effects of temperature and precipitation across the 17 GCMs are incorporated into a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI's IMPACT water and food projections model to assess the effects of climate change on food outcomes for the region. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper finds that the CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures and mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period. Compared to historic climate scenarios, climate change will lead to changes in yield and area growth, higher food prices and therefore lower affordability of food, reduced calorie availability, and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace153659 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateRange | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1536592025-11-06T05:08:16Z Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios Ringler, Claudia Zhu, Tingju Cai, Ximing Koo, Jawoo Wang, Dingbao climate change hydrology crop yield food security Climate change impacts vary significantly, depending on the scenario and the Global Circulation Model (GCM) chosen. This is particularly true for Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses a comprehensive climate change scenario (CCC) based on ensembles of 17 GCMs selected based on their relative performance regarding past predictions of temperature and precipitation at the level of 2o x 2o grid cells, generated by a recently developed entropy-based downscaling model. Based on past performance, the effects of temperature and precipitation across the 17 GCMs are incorporated into a global hydrological model that is linked with IFPRI's IMPACT water and food projections model to assess the effects of climate change on food outcomes for the region. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper finds that the CCC scenario predicts consistently higher temperatures and mixed precipitation changes for the 2050 period. Compared to historic climate scenarios, climate change will lead to changes in yield and area growth, higher food prices and therefore lower affordability of food, reduced calorie availability, and growing childhood malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa. 2010 2024-10-01T13:57:03Z 2024-10-01T13:57:03Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153659 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju; Cai, Ximing; Koo, Jawoo; Wang, Dingbao. 2010. Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1042. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153659 |
| spellingShingle | climate change hydrology crop yield food security Ringler, Claudia Zhu, Tingju Cai, Ximing Koo, Jawoo Wang, Dingbao Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title | Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on food security in sub saharan africa insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios |
| topic | climate change hydrology crop yield food security |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153659 |
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