Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan
Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analy...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Artículo preliminar |
| Language: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553 |
| _version_ | 1855524372492582912 |
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| author | Maystadt, Jean-François You, Liangzhi Calderone, Margherita Bernal |
| author_browse | Calderone, Margherita Bernal Maystadt, Jean-François You, Liangzhi |
| author_facet | Maystadt, Jean-François You, Liangzhi Calderone, Margherita Bernal |
| author_sort | Maystadt, Jean-François |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace153553 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1535532025-11-06T06:07:57Z Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan Maystadt, Jean-François You, Liangzhi Calderone, Margherita Bernal weather shock vulnerability resilience armed conflicts disasters climate change Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations. 2013 2024-10-01T13:56:37Z 2024-10-01T13:56:37Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Calderone, Margherita; Maystadt, Jean-Francois and You, Liangzhi. 2013. Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1276 Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553 |
| spellingShingle | weather shock vulnerability resilience armed conflicts disasters climate change Maystadt, Jean-François You, Liangzhi Calderone, Margherita Bernal Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title | Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title_full | Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title_fullStr | Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title_short | Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan |
| title_sort | local warming and violent conflict in north and south sudan |
| topic | weather shock vulnerability resilience armed conflicts disasters climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153553 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maystadtjeanfrancois localwarmingandviolentconflictinnorthandsouthsudan AT youliangzhi localwarmingandviolentconflictinnorthandsouthsudan AT calderonemargheritabernal localwarmingandviolentconflictinnorthandsouthsudan |