Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia
Economy‐wide and hydrological‐crop models are combined to assess the economic impacts of historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by 4% over a 10...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2012
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153166 |
| _version_ | 1855529511640104960 |
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| author | Thurlow, James Zhu, Tingju Diao, Xinshen |
| author_browse | Diao, Xinshen Thurlow, James Zhu, Tingju |
| author_facet | Thurlow, James Zhu, Tingju Diao, Xinshen |
| author_sort | Thurlow, James |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Economy‐wide and hydrological‐crop models are combined to assess the economic impacts of historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by 4% over a 10‐year period and pulls 2% of the population below the poverty line. Socioeconomic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Climate change scenarios draw on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. The paper concludes that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace153166 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateRange | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1531662025-02-19T13:42:29Z Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia Thurlow, James Zhu, Tingju Diao, Xinshen climate change developing countries economic development economic impact growth poverty Economy‐wide and hydrological‐crop models are combined to assess the economic impacts of historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by 4% over a 10‐year period and pulls 2% of the population below the poverty line. Socioeconomic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Climate change scenarios draw on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. The paper concludes that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades. 2012-08 2024-10-01T13:55:44Z 2024-10-01T13:55:44Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153166 en Limited Access Wiley Thurlow, James; Zhu, Tingju; Diao, Xinshen 2012. Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia. Review of Development Economics 16(3): 394-411 |
| spellingShingle | climate change developing countries economic development economic impact growth poverty Thurlow, James Zhu, Tingju Diao, Xinshen Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title | Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title_full | Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title_fullStr | Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title_short | Current climate variability and future climate change: Estimated growth and poverty impacts for Zambia |
| title_sort | current climate variability and future climate change estimated growth and poverty impacts for zambia |
| topic | climate change developing countries economic development economic impact growth poverty |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/153166 |
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