Economic impacts of climate change in Syria
There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a model...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
World Scientific Publishing
2013
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152743 |
| _version_ | 1855528240331882496 |
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| author | Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte |
| author_browse | Al-Riffai, Perrihan Breisinger, Clemens Funes, José Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Verner, Dorte Zhu, Tingju |
| author_facet | Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte |
| author_sort | Breisinger, Clemens |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace152743 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | World Scientific Publishing |
| publisherStr | World Scientific Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1527432025-12-08T10:29:22Z Economic impacts of climate change in Syria Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte climate change development growth modelling drought poverty resilience There is broad consensus among scientists that climate change is altering weather patterns around the world. However, economists are only beginning to develop comprehensive tools that allow for the quantification of such weather changes on countries' economies and people. This paper presents a modeling suite that links the downscaling of global climate models, crop modeling, global economic modeling, and sub-national-level dynamic computable equilibrium modeling. Important to note is that this approach allows for decomposing the potential global and local economic effects on countries, including various economic sectors and different household groups. We apply this modeling suite to Syria, a relevant case study given the country's location in a region that is consistently projected to be among those hit hardest by climate change. We find that, despite a certain degree of endogenous adaptation, local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Syria beyond the agricultural sector and farmers and also reduce economy-wide growth and incomes of urban households in the long term. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher food prices) are also negative, but some farmers may reap the benefit of higher prices. Combining local and global climate change scenarios shows welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit. 2013-02 2024-10-01T13:55:09Z 2024-10-01T13:55:09Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152743 en Limited Access World Scientific Publishing Breisinger, Clemens; Zhu, Tingju; Al-Riffai, Perrihan; Nelson, Gerald C.; Robertson, Richard; Funes, José; Verner, Dorte. 2013. Economic impacts of climate change in Syria. Climate Change Economics 4(1): 1350002. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007813500024 |
| spellingShingle | climate change development growth modelling drought poverty resilience Breisinger, Clemens Zhu, Tingju Al-Riffai, Perrihan Nelson, Gerald C. Robertson, Richard D. Funes, José Verner, Dorte Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title | Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title_full | Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title_fullStr | Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title_short | Economic impacts of climate change in Syria |
| title_sort | economic impacts of climate change in syria |
| topic | climate change development growth modelling drought poverty resilience |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152743 |
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