South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures
The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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Kiel Institute for the World Economy
2013
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152721 |
| _version_ | 1855527690856038400 |
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| author | Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda |
| author_browse | Dube, Sikhalazo Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Nelson, Gerald C. Palazzo, Amanda Scholes, Robert J. |
| author_facet | Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda |
| author_sort | Dube, Sikhalazo |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. The planted area remains fairly constant in both location and size. As a result of increasing food demand, net exports decline (i.e. imports increase) substantially, and so do prices due to simultaneous increases in global demand. The effects on food security in South Africa, measured as average calorific intake per person and malnutrition in children under the age of five, depends more on the assumptions regarding population and GDP growth than on climate change, since the study assumes that local shortages will be balanced by increased imports, if they are affordable. Thus the vulnerability to food insecurity at family and national level increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market-related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production, decrease its climate sensitivity and facilitate access to international markets are indicated, along with efforts to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Paper submitted to the special issue Food Security and Climate Change. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace152721 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateRange | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | Kiel Institute for the World Economy |
| publisherStr | Kiel Institute for the World Economy |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1527212025-04-08T18:33:07Z South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda climate change crop production food security modelling The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. The planted area remains fairly constant in both location and size. As a result of increasing food demand, net exports decline (i.e. imports increase) substantially, and so do prices due to simultaneous increases in global demand. The effects on food security in South Africa, measured as average calorific intake per person and malnutrition in children under the age of five, depends more on the assumptions regarding population and GDP growth than on climate change, since the study assumes that local shortages will be balanced by increased imports, if they are affordable. Thus the vulnerability to food insecurity at family and national level increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market-related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production, decrease its climate sensitivity and facilitate access to international markets are indicated, along with efforts to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Paper submitted to the special issue Food Security and Climate Change. 2013 2024-10-01T13:55:08Z 2024-10-01T13:55:08Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152721 en Economics Discussion Papers Open Access Kiel Institute for the World Economy Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J.; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda 2013. South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures. Economics Discussion Papers 2013-12. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12 |
| spellingShingle | climate change crop production food security modelling Dube, Sikhalazo Scholes, Robert J. Nelson, Gerald C. Mason-D’Croz, Daniel Palazzo, Amanda South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title | South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title_full | South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title_fullStr | South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title_full_unstemmed | South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title_short | South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures |
| title_sort | south african food security and climate change agriculture futures |
| topic | climate change crop production food security modelling |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152721 |
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