Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

Strong economic growth in urban areas has not led to rapid urbanization in Ethiopia, possibly as a result of prevailing land tenure policies. We examine the economic implications of accelerated urbanization using a rural-urban economywide model that explicitly captures internal migration and agglome...

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Autores principales: Dorosh, Paul A., Thurlow, James
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152600
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author Dorosh, Paul A.
Thurlow, James
author_browse Dorosh, Paul A.
Thurlow, James
author_facet Dorosh, Paul A.
Thurlow, James
author_sort Dorosh, Paul A.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Strong economic growth in urban areas has not led to rapid urbanization in Ethiopia, possibly as a result of prevailing land tenure policies. We examine the economic implications of accelerated urbanization using a rural-urban economywide model that explicitly captures internal migration and agglomeration effects. Simulation results indicate that accelerated urbanization would strengthen economic growth, improve rural welfare, and reduce the rural-urban divide. However, without supporting investments in urban areas, the welfare gains for poorer households remain small and urban inequality worsens. At the same time, while allocating more public resources to urban areas encourages economic growth, it is less likely to benefit poor households' welfare. Indeed, even though an agriculture-oriented investment plan slows economic growth, it is more effective at improving welfare for poorer households in both rural and urban areas. We conclude that combining reforms to overcome the constraints to internal migration together with increased investment in rural areas (even at the cost of urban investment) produces outcomes most conducive to future economic development and structural transformation in Ethiopia.
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spelling CGSpace1526002025-11-06T05:16:33Z Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia Dorosh, Paul A. Thurlow, James resettlement rural urban relations structural adjustment mathematical models computable general equilibrium models Strong economic growth in urban areas has not led to rapid urbanization in Ethiopia, possibly as a result of prevailing land tenure policies. We examine the economic implications of accelerated urbanization using a rural-urban economywide model that explicitly captures internal migration and agglomeration effects. Simulation results indicate that accelerated urbanization would strengthen economic growth, improve rural welfare, and reduce the rural-urban divide. However, without supporting investments in urban areas, the welfare gains for poorer households remain small and urban inequality worsens. At the same time, while allocating more public resources to urban areas encourages economic growth, it is less likely to benefit poor households' welfare. Indeed, even though an agriculture-oriented investment plan slows economic growth, it is more effective at improving welfare for poorer households in both rural and urban areas. We conclude that combining reforms to overcome the constraints to internal migration together with increased investment in rural areas (even at the cost of urban investment) produces outcomes most conducive to future economic development and structural transformation in Ethiopia. 2011 2024-10-01T13:55:00Z 2024-10-01T13:55:00Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152600 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Ethiopian Development Research Institute Dorosh, Paul A.; Thurlow, James. 2011. Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia. ESSP II Working Paper 14. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152600
spellingShingle resettlement
rural urban relations
structural adjustment
mathematical models
computable general equilibrium models
Dorosh, Paul A.
Thurlow, James
Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title_full Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title_fullStr Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title_short Urbanization and economic transformation: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia
title_sort urbanization and economic transformation a cge analysis for ethiopia
topic resettlement
rural urban relations
structural adjustment
mathematical models
computable general equilibrium models
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152600
work_keys_str_mv AT doroshpaula urbanizationandeconomictransformationacgeanalysisforethiopia
AT thurlowjames urbanizationandeconomictransformationacgeanalysisforethiopia