Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.
Since the eruption of violence in October 2017 involving non-state armed groups and government forces in Cabo Delgado, the situation has remained volatile in the region. As the conflict crisis is compounded by recurrent tropical cyclones, heavy rains and drought, over 1.7 million people are still re...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Informe técnico |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
2024
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152471 |
| _version_ | 1855526510659633152 |
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| author | Minoarivelo, Onivola Craparo, Alessandro Basel, Ashleigh Pacillo, Grazia Laderach, Peter |
| author_browse | Basel, Ashleigh Craparo, Alessandro Laderach, Peter Minoarivelo, Onivola Pacillo, Grazia |
| author_facet | Minoarivelo, Onivola Craparo, Alessandro Basel, Ashleigh Pacillo, Grazia Laderach, Peter |
| author_sort | Minoarivelo, Onivola |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Since the eruption of violence in October 2017 involving non-state armed groups and government forces in Cabo Delgado, the situation has remained volatile in the region. As the conflict crisis is compounded by recurrent tropical cyclones, heavy rains and drought, over 1.7 million people are still requiring critical humanitarian assistance in this province as of the start of 2024. WFP’s largest operation in Mozambique is in this province. To support WFP’s operations, CGIAR conducted a systems analysis of conflict and fragility in Cabo Delgado. First, with a spatiotemporal co-occurrence analysis of climate hazards and conflicts across the broader region, we show that Mozambique has been particularly exposed to high climate hazards and conflicts over the past three decades, while climate hazards are expected to increase to extreme levels by 2040. Second, by performing a conflict-sensitivity analysis for Mozambique with a special focus on Cabo Delgado, we emphasize the severity of conflict impacts and exposure in this region. Finally, using a compound risk framework (CRF) tailored for Cabo Delgado, we offer a comprehensive understanding of fragility in the province, highlighting conflicts and climate hazards as intricate drivers of acute food insecurity. The CRF reveals that critical factors preventing the escalation of instability through food insecurity include trade flows, alongside crop production. With a complex setting such as Cabo Delgado, the CRF emphasizes the significance of adopting systems approaches that can proactively identify high-risk areas, enabling more effective implementation of targeted interventions to enhance resilience. |
| format | Informe técnico |
| id | CGSpace152471 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1524712025-12-08T10:11:39Z Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. Minoarivelo, Onivola Craparo, Alessandro Basel, Ashleigh Pacillo, Grazia Laderach, Peter climate change adaptation hazards conflict sensitivity climate change impacts Since the eruption of violence in October 2017 involving non-state armed groups and government forces in Cabo Delgado, the situation has remained volatile in the region. As the conflict crisis is compounded by recurrent tropical cyclones, heavy rains and drought, over 1.7 million people are still requiring critical humanitarian assistance in this province as of the start of 2024. WFP’s largest operation in Mozambique is in this province. To support WFP’s operations, CGIAR conducted a systems analysis of conflict and fragility in Cabo Delgado. First, with a spatiotemporal co-occurrence analysis of climate hazards and conflicts across the broader region, we show that Mozambique has been particularly exposed to high climate hazards and conflicts over the past three decades, while climate hazards are expected to increase to extreme levels by 2040. Second, by performing a conflict-sensitivity analysis for Mozambique with a special focus on Cabo Delgado, we emphasize the severity of conflict impacts and exposure in this region. Finally, using a compound risk framework (CRF) tailored for Cabo Delgado, we offer a comprehensive understanding of fragility in the province, highlighting conflicts and climate hazards as intricate drivers of acute food insecurity. The CRF reveals that critical factors preventing the escalation of instability through food insecurity include trade flows, alongside crop production. With a complex setting such as Cabo Delgado, the CRF emphasizes the significance of adopting systems approaches that can proactively identify high-risk areas, enabling more effective implementation of targeted interventions to enhance resilience. 2024-09-27 2024-09-29T22:12:18Z 2024-09-29T22:12:18Z Report https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152471 en Open Access application/pdf Minoarivelo, O.; Craparo, A.; Basel, A.; Pacillo, G.; Laderach, P. (2024) Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. Technical Report to Support WFP Regional Action on Climate Resilience for Cabo Delgado Mozambique. 17 p. |
| spellingShingle | climate change adaptation hazards conflict sensitivity climate change impacts Minoarivelo, Onivola Craparo, Alessandro Basel, Ashleigh Pacillo, Grazia Laderach, Peter Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title | Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title_full | Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title_fullStr | Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title_short | Systems analysis of fragility in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. |
| title_sort | systems analysis of fragility in cabo delgado mozambique |
| topic | climate change adaptation hazards conflict sensitivity climate change impacts |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152471 |
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