Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050
We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in Mozambique. We pass a distribution of climate shocks through a series of structural biophysical models. The resulting joint distributions of biophysical outcomes are then imposed on a dynamic economywide model. This fra...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2015
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151220 |
| _version_ | 1855525085162504192 |
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| author | Arndt, Channing Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Arndt, Channing Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Arndt, Channing Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Arndt, Channing |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in Mozambique. We pass a distribution of climate shocks through a series of structural biophysical models. The resulting joint distributions of biophysical outcomes are then imposed on a dynamic economywide model. This framework produces distributions of economic impacts of climate change thus identifying an explicit range of potential economic outcomes and associating probability levels with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13 % smaller in 2050 compared with a fictional no climate change scenario (and assuming global policy fails to constrain emissions growth). The probability of gross domestic product (GDP) declines of greater than 10 % is relatively small at 2.5 %. These large declines are principally the result of dramatic reductions in flood return periods. To 2050, about 70 % of future climates result in GDP losses of between zero and five percent. In about 9 % of cases, climate change shocks result in higher GDP outcomes. We conclude that, relative to current practice, this structural probabilistic approach provides (i) significantly more information to decision-makers, (ii) more detailed insight into the importance of various impact channels, and (iii) a more holistic and comprehensive approach for evaluating adaptation options. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace151220 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1512202025-02-19T13:42:22Z Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 Arndt, Channing Thurlow, James models shock economy climate change We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in Mozambique. We pass a distribution of climate shocks through a series of structural biophysical models. The resulting joint distributions of biophysical outcomes are then imposed on a dynamic economywide model. This framework produces distributions of economic impacts of climate change thus identifying an explicit range of potential economic outcomes and associating probability levels with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13 % smaller in 2050 compared with a fictional no climate change scenario (and assuming global policy fails to constrain emissions growth). The probability of gross domestic product (GDP) declines of greater than 10 % is relatively small at 2.5 %. These large declines are principally the result of dramatic reductions in flood return periods. To 2050, about 70 % of future climates result in GDP losses of between zero and five percent. In about 9 % of cases, climate change shocks result in higher GDP outcomes. We conclude that, relative to current practice, this structural probabilistic approach provides (i) significantly more information to decision-makers, (ii) more detailed insight into the importance of various impact channels, and (iii) a more holistic and comprehensive approach for evaluating adaptation options. 2015-05-01 2024-08-01T02:56:01Z 2024-08-01T02:56:01Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151220 en Open Access Springer Arndt, Channing; and Thurlow, James. 2015. Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050. Climatic Change 130(1): 63 - 75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1294-x |
| spellingShingle | models shock economy climate change Arndt, Channing Thurlow, James Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title | Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title_full | Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title_short | Climate uncertainty and economic development: Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 |
| title_sort | climate uncertainty and economic development evaluating the case of mozambique to 2050 |
| topic | models shock economy climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151220 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arndtchanning climateuncertaintyandeconomicdevelopmentevaluatingthecaseofmozambiqueto2050 AT thurlowjames climateuncertaintyandeconomicdevelopmentevaluatingthecaseofmozambiqueto2050 |