US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress
Heat is a serious barrier to maize productivity increases, and heat is expected to rise as a result of climate change. Using county-level annual yields for rainfed maize for 2,616 US counties from 1980 to 2010, we conduct a multivariate, nonparametric yield response analysis to weather, maize price,...
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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International Food Policy Research Institute
2015
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| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527 |
| _version_ | 1855514800951394304 |
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| author | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_browse | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_facet | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| author_sort | Thomas, Timothy S. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Heat is a serious barrier to maize productivity increases, and heat is expected to rise as a result of climate change. Using county-level annual yields for rainfed maize for 2,616 US counties from 1980 to 2010, we conduct a multivariate, nonparametric yield response analysis to weather, maize price, and time trend to project climate impact on maize and to compare with climate projections from crop models. When we compare with climate impacts predicted by biophysical models, we find that our analysis tends to support the most pessimistic of the biophysical model projections for climate change. We also demonstrate that growth in maize yields in the United States between 1980 and 2010 was higher under high temperatures than under moderate temperatures, with yields growing 20.2 percent faster when the mean daily maximum temperature for the warmest month ranged from 34 to 35 degrees Celsius instead of 28 to 29 degrees. Similarly, we find that US maize has become more tolerant of lower rainfall levels, with yields growing 15.9 percent faster between 1980 and 2010 when rainfall is below 250 millimeters in the first four months of the growing period compared with when it is between 400 and 450 millimeters (the optimal amount of rainfall). This suggests that significant adaptation to current and future effects of climate change is already taking place for US maize. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace150527 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1505272025-11-06T05:11:06Z US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress Thomas, Timothy S. models maize heat stress productivity climate change adaptation water stress climate change Heat is a serious barrier to maize productivity increases, and heat is expected to rise as a result of climate change. Using county-level annual yields for rainfed maize for 2,616 US counties from 1980 to 2010, we conduct a multivariate, nonparametric yield response analysis to weather, maize price, and time trend to project climate impact on maize and to compare with climate projections from crop models. When we compare with climate impacts predicted by biophysical models, we find that our analysis tends to support the most pessimistic of the biophysical model projections for climate change. We also demonstrate that growth in maize yields in the United States between 1980 and 2010 was higher under high temperatures than under moderate temperatures, with yields growing 20.2 percent faster when the mean daily maximum temperature for the warmest month ranged from 34 to 35 degrees Celsius instead of 28 to 29 degrees. Similarly, we find that US maize has become more tolerant of lower rainfall levels, with yields growing 15.9 percent faster between 1980 and 2010 when rainfall is below 250 millimeters in the first four months of the growing period compared with when it is between 400 and 450 millimeters (the optimal amount of rainfall). This suggests that significant adaptation to current and future effects of climate change is already taking place for US maize. 2015-12-03 2024-08-01T02:52:12Z 2024-08-01T02:52:12Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12088 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298477 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Thomas, Timothy S. US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress. 2015. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1485. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527 |
| spellingShingle | models maize heat stress productivity climate change adaptation water stress climate change Thomas, Timothy S. US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title | US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title_full | US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title_fullStr | US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title_full_unstemmed | US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title_short | US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| title_sort | us maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress |
| topic | models maize heat stress productivity climate change adaptation water stress climate change |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150527 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thomastimothys usmaizedatarevealsadaptationtoheatandwaterstress |