Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa

The Shuffled Complex Evolution—Universal Algorithm (SCE‐UA) is an automatic calibration algorithm that has shown success in finding a globally optimum objective function with more efficiency than other methods. We incorporated the SCE‐UA into our novel modeling environment, utilizing an ontology‐bas...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Headey, Derek D., Maystadt, Jean-François, Calderone, Margherita Bernal
Formato: Capítulo de libro
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: International Food Policy Research Institute 2014
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107
_version_ 1855539317030518784
author Headey, Derek D.
Maystadt, Jean-François
Calderone, Margherita Bernal
author_browse Calderone, Margherita Bernal
Headey, Derek D.
Maystadt, Jean-François
author_facet Headey, Derek D.
Maystadt, Jean-François
Calderone, Margherita Bernal
author_sort Headey, Derek D.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The Shuffled Complex Evolution—Universal Algorithm (SCE‐UA) is an automatic calibration algorithm that has shown success in finding a globally optimum objective function with more efficiency than other methods. We incorporated the SCE‐UA into our novel modeling environment, utilizing an ontology‐based simulation (OntoSim‐Sugarcane) framework adapted to analyze groundwater table (WT) fluctuations and drainage practices on four farm basins in the Everglades Agricultural Area of south Florida.Utilizing two water years (WY96–97) of farm WT fluctuations observed at a portion (<16 ha) of each farm basin, two parameters—lateral hydraulic conductivities of soil profile and vertical hydraulic conductivity of underlying limestone—were automatically calibrated. Regardless of farms, the best parameter sets that minimize the objective function of daily root mean square error could be found after 1500 simulation runs. The quality of matching simulated to observed values of farm WT were further assessed by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The NSE ranged from 0.38 to 0.75 (calibration period, WY96–97) and 0.10 to 0.76 (validation period, WY98–99) on all four farms. These results indicate that this coupling strengthens the capability of OntoSim‐Sugarcane to model hydrology by objectively finding the best parameter sets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
format Book Chapter
id CGSpace150107
institution CGIAR Consortium
language Inglés
publishDate 2014
publishDateRange 2014
publishDateSort 2014
publisher International Food Policy Research Institute
publisherStr International Food Policy Research Institute
record_format dspace
spelling CGSpace1501072025-11-06T04:16:11Z Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa Headey, Derek D. Maystadt, Jean-François Calderone, Margherita Bernal economic shock nutrition security environmental factors shock economic development social protection pastoralism malnutrition drought food security weather conflicts food prices social safety nets resilience climate change The Shuffled Complex Evolution—Universal Algorithm (SCE‐UA) is an automatic calibration algorithm that has shown success in finding a globally optimum objective function with more efficiency than other methods. We incorporated the SCE‐UA into our novel modeling environment, utilizing an ontology‐based simulation (OntoSim‐Sugarcane) framework adapted to analyze groundwater table (WT) fluctuations and drainage practices on four farm basins in the Everglades Agricultural Area of south Florida.Utilizing two water years (WY96–97) of farm WT fluctuations observed at a portion (<16 ha) of each farm basin, two parameters—lateral hydraulic conductivities of soil profile and vertical hydraulic conductivity of underlying limestone—were automatically calibrated. Regardless of farms, the best parameter sets that minimize the objective function of daily root mean square error could be found after 1500 simulation runs. The quality of matching simulated to observed values of farm WT were further assessed by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE). The NSE ranged from 0.38 to 0.75 (calibration period, WY96–97) and 0.10 to 0.76 (validation period, WY98–99) on all four farms. These results indicate that this coupling strengthens the capability of OntoSim‐Sugarcane to model hydrology by objectively finding the best parameter sets. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 2014 2024-08-01T02:50:43Z 2024-08-01T02:50:43Z Book Chapter https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107 en https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896296787 Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Calderone, Margherita; Headey, Derek D. and Maystadt, Jean-François. 2014. Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa. In Resilience for food and nutrition security. Eds. Fan, Shenggen; Pandya-Lorch, Rajul and Yosef, Sivan. Chapter 8. Pp. 65-74. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107
spellingShingle economic shock
nutrition security
environmental factors
shock
economic development
social protection
pastoralism
malnutrition
drought
food security
weather
conflicts
food prices
social safety nets
resilience
climate change
Headey, Derek D.
Maystadt, Jean-François
Calderone, Margherita Bernal
Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title_full Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title_fullStr Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title_full_unstemmed Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title_short Resilience to climate-induced conflict in the Horn of Africa
title_sort resilience to climate induced conflict in the horn of africa
topic economic shock
nutrition security
environmental factors
shock
economic development
social protection
pastoralism
malnutrition
drought
food security
weather
conflicts
food prices
social safety nets
resilience
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/150107
work_keys_str_mv AT headeyderekd resiliencetoclimateinducedconflictinthehornofafrica
AT maystadtjeanfrancois resiliencetoclimateinducedconflictinthehornofafrica
AT calderonemargheritabernal resiliencetoclimateinducedconflictinthehornofafrica