Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI

The South Asian monsoon is critically important for agricultural production in the region that includes the vast, fertile Indus and Ganges basins. However, the behavior of the South Asian monsoon is not well understood because of its complex nature, and existing instrumental climate records are insu...

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Autores principales: Rahman, D., Wang, Dingbao, Zhu, Tingju, Ringler, Claudia
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: American Meteorological Society 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149948
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author Rahman, D.
Wang, Dingbao
Zhu, Tingju
Ringler, Claudia
author_browse Rahman, D.
Ringler, Claudia
Wang, Dingbao
Zhu, Tingju
author_facet Rahman, D.
Wang, Dingbao
Zhu, Tingju
Ringler, Claudia
author_sort Rahman, D.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description The South Asian monsoon is critically important for agricultural production in the region that includes the vast, fertile Indus and Ganges basins. However, the behavior of the South Asian monsoon is not well understood because of its complex nature, and existing instrumental climate records are insufficient for investigating the risks of the low-frequency but high-impact megadroughts that have historically occurred. This paper develops an inverse Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) model to retrieve paleoprecipitation for the region during the time period of 1300–1899, using available data of the water-holding capacity of soil, temperature, and reconstructed PDSI based on the tree-ring analysis of Cook et al.. Temperature data are reconstructed by a regression analysis utilizing an existing temperature reconstruction in an adjacent region and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Based on the retrieved paleoprecipitation, several megadroughts are identified during the reconstruction period. The drought frequency in the Indus basin is higher than that in the Ganges basin. The intensity, frequency, and spatial extent of severe droughts increased from 1300–1899 to 1900–2010. As a signal of climate change, increasing intensity and frequency of severe drought in the Indus and Ganges River basins needs adaptation strategies and drought preparedness measures to secure the food production in this area.
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publishDate 2015
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spelling CGSpace1499482025-02-19T14:07:06Z Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI Rahman, D. Wang, Dingbao Zhu, Tingju Ringler, Claudia food production palaeoclimatology watersheds growth rings climate change The South Asian monsoon is critically important for agricultural production in the region that includes the vast, fertile Indus and Ganges basins. However, the behavior of the South Asian monsoon is not well understood because of its complex nature, and existing instrumental climate records are insufficient for investigating the risks of the low-frequency but high-impact megadroughts that have historically occurred. This paper develops an inverse Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) model to retrieve paleoprecipitation for the region during the time period of 1300–1899, using available data of the water-holding capacity of soil, temperature, and reconstructed PDSI based on the tree-ring analysis of Cook et al.. Temperature data are reconstructed by a regression analysis utilizing an existing temperature reconstruction in an adjacent region and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Based on the retrieved paleoprecipitation, several megadroughts are identified during the reconstruction period. The drought frequency in the Indus basin is higher than that in the Ganges basin. The intensity, frequency, and spatial extent of severe droughts increased from 1300–1899 to 1900–2010. As a signal of climate change, increasing intensity and frequency of severe drought in the Indus and Ganges River basins needs adaptation strategies and drought preparedness measures to secure the food production in this area. 2015-02-25 2024-08-01T02:50:18Z 2024-08-01T02:50:18Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149948 en Limited Access American Meteorological Society Rahman, D.; Wang, Dingbao; Zhu, Tingju; and Ringler, Claudia. 2015. Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16(June 2015): 1372-1386. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0172.1
spellingShingle food production
palaeoclimatology
watersheds
growth rings
climate change
Rahman, D.
Wang, Dingbao
Zhu, Tingju
Ringler, Claudia
Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title_full Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title_fullStr Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title_full_unstemmed Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title_short Paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the Indus and Ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI
title_sort paleoprecipitation reconstruction in the indus and ganges basins by inverse modeling of tree ring based pdsi
topic food production
palaeoclimatology
watersheds
growth rings
climate change
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149948
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AT zhutingju paleoprecipitationreconstructionintheindusandgangesbasinsbyinversemodelingoftreeringbasedpdsi
AT ringlerclaudia paleoprecipitationreconstructionintheindusandgangesbasinsbyinversemodelingoftreeringbasedpdsi