How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region?
This paper investigates the effects of war on trade in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), an area at considerable risk for conflicts. Using an augmented gravity model, we introduce a war variable and distinguish between different types of conflicts. We run a battery of sensitivity analy...
| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Artículo preliminar |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
International Food Policy Research Institute
2015
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149525 |
| _version_ | 1855523937376534528 |
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| author | Karam, Fida Zaki, Chahir |
| author_browse | Karam, Fida Zaki, Chahir |
| author_facet | Karam, Fida Zaki, Chahir |
| author_sort | Karam, Fida |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper investigates the effects of war on trade in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), an area at considerable risk for conflicts. Using an augmented gravity model, we introduce a war variable and distinguish between different types of conflicts. We run a battery of sensitivity analysis tests to control for the endogeneity problem that may arise in our estimation. The results show that, in general, wars have a significantly negative impact on trade (exports and imports); civil conflicts in particular hinder exports, imports, and overall trade significantly. The disaggregated version of the gravity model shows that non-state conflicts have a detrimental effect on bilateral trade flows in manufacturing; however, none of the conflicts modeled affect trade in services. Finally, the outcome of the gravity model for manufacturing has been used to compute ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of wars at the country level. We found that, on average, a conflict is equivalent to a tariff of 5 percent of the value of trade. More heterogeneity is observed at the sectoral level, where AVEs range from 4 to 65 percent. |
| format | Artículo preliminar |
| id | CGSpace149525 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| publisherStr | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1495252025-11-06T06:05:34Z How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? Karam, Fida Zaki, Chahir models trade armed conflicts This paper investigates the effects of war on trade in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA), an area at considerable risk for conflicts. Using an augmented gravity model, we introduce a war variable and distinguish between different types of conflicts. We run a battery of sensitivity analysis tests to control for the endogeneity problem that may arise in our estimation. The results show that, in general, wars have a significantly negative impact on trade (exports and imports); civil conflicts in particular hinder exports, imports, and overall trade significantly. The disaggregated version of the gravity model shows that non-state conflicts have a detrimental effect on bilateral trade flows in manufacturing; however, none of the conflicts modeled affect trade in services. Finally, the outcome of the gravity model for manufacturing has been used to compute ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of wars at the country level. We found that, on average, a conflict is equivalent to a tariff of 5 percent of the value of trade. More heterogeneity is observed at the sectoral level, where AVEs range from 4 to 65 percent. 2015-12-14 2024-08-01T02:49:29Z 2024-08-01T02:49:29Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149525 en Open Access application/pdf International Food Policy Research Institute Karam, Fida; and Zaki, Chahir. 2015. How Did Wars Dampen Trade in the MENA Region? AGRODEP Working Paper 0017. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149525 |
| spellingShingle | models trade armed conflicts Karam, Fida Zaki, Chahir How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title | How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title_full | How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title_fullStr | How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title_full_unstemmed | How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title_short | How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region? |
| title_sort | how did wars dampen trade in the mena region |
| topic | models trade armed conflicts |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149525 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT karamfida howdidwarsdampentradeinthemenaregion AT zakichahir howdidwarsdampentradeinthemenaregion |